By Chia Feimao | 2025-09-24

Chinese plans for a paralyzing missile strike on Taiwan might run afoul of the island's defensive preparations.

Among the scenarios for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, a "saturation missile strike” is often seen as the likeliest opening move. The idea is to overwhelm Taiwan's defenses by launching 1,000 missiles at airports, seaports and missile sites, crippling the navy and air force. In such a strike, the Rocket Force would have to play the lead role.

China's Rocket Force could fire a maximum of 216 missiles in its opening salvo against Taiwan, Kao Chih-jung, a member of Taiwan ThinkTank's advisory committee, said at a seminar in Taipei on September 2 titled "Threat Posed to Taiwan by the PLA's Rocket Force, Navy and Air Force -- and Ways to Respond."

The PLA is China's People's Liberation Army.

The PLA Rocket Force was once known as the Second Artillery Corps. In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping split it off from the army and elevated it as the PLA's fourth service branch after the army, navy and air force.

Equipped for both conventional and nuclear strikes, it has drawn increasing international attention.

Almost 1,000 missiles aimed at Taiwan

The PLA Rocket Force has almost 1,000 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, including the DF-11, DF-15 and DF-16, said Kao, citing a 2022 report from the China Aerospace Studies Institute and the US Pentagon's China Military Power Report 2024.

The force has more than 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles targeting countries across the Indo-Pacific. These could be redirected toward Taiwan if needed.

In August 2022, during then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei, China launched 11 missiles toward Taiwan, mostly DF-15Bs.

The missiles likely came from Rocket Force Base 61, Shu Hsiao-huang, an associate researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, wrote in an article.

Base 61 includes five short-range ballistic missile brigades stationed in Shangrao (Jiangxi), Yong'an (Fujian), Meizhou (Guangdong), Ganzhou (Jiangxi) and Jinhua (Zhejiang).

Base 63 adds another brigade in Shaoguan (Guangdong).

Together, these six missile brigades form the Rocket Force's primary strike units against Taiwan.

These units can launch 216 missiles in a single salvo, hitting Taiwan within 10 minutes, and they can repeat the strike three times, said Kao.

Taiwan's defenses

But even such saturation fire would not be enough to suppress Taiwan's air defenses. Long-range strikes with CJ-10 cruise missiles and fighter aircraft would be required as well.

Taiwan has 11 air bases and highway airstrips. Shutting them all down and grounding Taiwan's fighters would take at least 500 missiles and 1,080 rockets, say analysts.

That demand alone would stretch the Rocket Force's stockpiles, even without factoring in counterattacks on Rocket Force launch sites by Taiwan's Hsiung Feng II E and other missiles.

"The Rocket Force holds a key role in any PLA attack on Taiwan. If waves of short-range missile strikes work as intended, they could speed up the war and raise the odds of success. But if they fall flat, the campaign will stall,” Kao said.

As long as Taiwan's missiles and fighter jets remain combat-ready, the PLA would find it difficult to mount an amphibious -- or full-scale joint -- invasion, he said.

Recommendations

Participants at the seminar suggested ways for Taiwan to harden its defenses.

To blunt a Chinese "saturation strike," Kao urged Taiwan to plan for the PLA's maximum missile numbers and to continue strengthening its air defenses.

Doing so requires expanding production of domestic missiles such as the Hsiung Sheng and Tien Kung, while upgrading Taiwan's Patriot batteries through new arms purchases.

Since no air defense network is perfect, Kao called for preparing more highways as emergency runways for fighters, along with incorporating civilian teams into wartime planning to speed runway repairs.

Taiwan must strengthen its international defense partnerships and seek to join the US-made Golden Dome missile defense system, Tsao Hsiung-yuan, another advisory committee member at Taiwan ThinkTank, said.

Golden Dome, a next-generation missile shield, envisions multilayered defenses with sensors and interceptors on land, at sea and in the air and in space.

Canada and Japan are weighing participation in Golden Dome. Taiwan should likewise push Washington for approval to join, said Tsao.