By Tai Lu | 2025-10-08

A leaked Russian military document betrays the ominous extent of Russian aid to Chinese plans for invading Taiwan.

The London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in September disclosed a document detailing expanded Russian-Chinese military cooperation.

Moscow has agreed to assist the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in training airborne armored forces and supplying associated weapons and equipment.

The Black Moon hacker group obtained and exposed the roughly 800-page document. It contains contracts, equipment lists and communications. In 2023, Russia approved the sale of a full battalion set of airborne vehicles and training systems to China and committed to help integrate them into PLA airborne units, the document reveals.

Moscow "is equipping and training Chinese special forces to penetrate the territory of other countries without being noticed, offering offensive options against Taiwan, the Philippines and other island states in the region," it shows.

Russian equipment transfers

The main systems covered by the deal include 37 BMD-4M light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 Sprut-SDM1 self-propelled antitank guns, 11 BTR-MDM Rakushka airborne armored personnel carriers and several command-and-observation vehicles, said RUSI.

All vehicles are to be made compatible with China's communication and command networks and to be tested for electromagnetic interoperability.

The agreement provides China with the Dalnolyot special-purpose parachute system -- capable of airdropping loads of up to 190kg from as high as 9,754 meters and of gliding 30 to 80km depending on weight. This system will significantly expand the PLA's potential for long-range insertion of special forces teams.

Strategic implications for Taiwan

Moscow's decision reflects its effort to generate funds for its war in Ukraine while strategically binding Beijing closer through shared military technology, say analysts.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.

Sino-Russian cooperation could complicate US regional strategy by drawing China deeper into a Taiwan Strait conflict, say analysts.

"The threat is real," said Tony Hu, a former US Department of Defense official and retired lieutenant colonel, in an interview with Focus. "Russia is providing China with the operational experience and technical capabilities it has long lacked," he added.

Hu cited the Dalnolyot system as an example, explaining that its high-altitude, low-opening airdrop capability could allow Chinese special forces to infiltrate targets in Taiwan and coordinate with existing fifth-column networks. "These are skill sets the PLA doesn’t have yet, but they would be extremely useful in a Taiwan invasion scenario," he said.

The depth and frequency of Sino–Russian joint military exercises have grown steadily, with training locations "moving closer to Taiwan," Lai I-Chung, advisory committee member at the Taiwan Thinktank, said.

Taiwan's security agencies are paying greater attention to Russian involvement, since "Russia still holds an advantage in airborne operations and command-and-control procedures," which could serve as valuable models for Chinese airborne modernization, he told Focus.

Challenges and limitations

The Sino-Russian "no-limits" strategic partnership under a shared anti-US objective has effectively evolved into a "quasi-alliance," said Chen Yu-Hua, an assistant professor of China studies at Akita International University in Akita, Japan. The countries' strategic cooperation now even includes Russian-language joint training.

However, Chen emphasized that China still faces numerous challenges in any potential Taiwan conflict, not only in ensuring equipment readiness but also in managing US and Japanese responses, intraparty rivalries and the PLA's inexperience since the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979.

The extent of Chinese society's willingness to bear the cost of war, especially since most families were allowed only one child from 1980 to 2016, remains uncertain.

China may attempt to imitate Russia's rapid airborne assault tactics with Russian assistance, Shen Ming-Shih, research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Up Media.

However, the PLA's airborne units remain relatively small, heavily dependent on large transport aircraft and limited in ground firepower after landing, he said.

Furthermore, Taiwan has deployed countermeasures at airfields and high-elevation sites, he said.

Given fuel and payload constraints on helicopters, Shen added that if China were to use amphibious ships as launch platforms, they would face significant exposure to Taiwan's long-range antiship missiles and air defense systems.