By Chen Meihua | 2025-07-23

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte this month issued a stark warning that China's military expansion has moved beyond mere demonstrations of force and is rapidly shifting toward actual combat readiness, with its ambition to take Taiwan becoming increasingly apparent.

Speaking in Berlin on July 9 after meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Rutte stressed that any Chinese military action would likely be coordinated with Russia in an attempt to destabilize Europe and constrain Western capacity to respond in the Indo-Pacific, Euronews reported.

Security in the transatlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is now deeply intertwined, making it impossible to ignore the Taiwan issue without overlooking Europe's own strategic risks, he said.

China is modernizing and expanding its military at unprecedented speed, with projections of its navy growing to 435 ships and its nuclear arsenal exceeding 1,000 operational warheads by 2030, added Rutte.

"Those who stand against freedom and democracy are digging in -- preparing for long-term confrontation and trying to dominate and divide us," Rutte said, adding that if China attacked Taiwan, it would likely ask Russia to open a second front in Europe to distract NATO.

In an early July interview with The New York Times, he hypothesized that Chinese President Xi Jinping would probably call Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and say, "Hey, I'm going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory."

Although China and Russia have not formed a formal military alliance, Beijing's decision to invade Taiwan could present Moscow with a window of opportunity to destabilize Europe, say observers.

Rutte's remarks indicate NATO increasingly views "China-Russia coordination" as a unified threat, Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, told Focus.

"Putin may try to help China tie down NATO forces so they cannot fully respond to the Indo-Pacific," Sung said.

Should conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, the United States and other NATO members would inevitably have to divert resources to the Indo-Pacific, creating vulnerabilities in Europe that Russia could exploit, according to Alexander Huang, associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

However, China's and Russia's strategic interests are not entirely aligned, he said.

"From a Western perspective, China and Russia are 'back-to-back friends without limits,' but their actual interests often diverge," he told Focus, adding that a full military alliance remains unlikely.

Growing Engagement

European attention to Taiwan's security has been growing.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy on June 25 confirmed in parliament that the Royal Navy will continue freedom-of-navigation operations in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, underscoring Britain's commitment to regional stability.

The patrol vessel HMS Spey on June 18 transited the Taiwan Strait in the latest such passage.

Meanwhile, on July 4, British MP Gavin Williamson, a former defense secretary, visited Taiwan and participated in a roundtable with the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents' Club.

"The entire democratic world should work closely with Taiwan to build deterrence," Williamson said.

He criticized the West's past hesitance in supporting Taiwan due to fears of provoking Beijing.

"We need to do everything we can to push back," he said, calling for increased arms sales and supply chain cooperation with Taiwan and for the UK government to normalize relations with Taipei.

Europe is meanwhile undergoing internal military transformation.

At the June 25 NATO summit, member states pledged to raise defense and security-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 in the face of profound security threats and challenges.

European nations are increasingly aware that Eurasian security is interconnected, with the war in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait mutually reinforcing each other, said Atlantic Council's Sung.

This realization has prompted Europe to invest more in Taiwan-related research and policy engagement, he said.

Following the war in Ukraine, many Western think tanks have begun devoting substantial resources to Taiwan-related issues, Sung added. Academic exchanges and official visits between Europe and Taiwan have increased significantly, reflecting growing recognition of Taiwan's strategic value in the broader Eurasian chessboard.

NATO will continue to deepen ties with Indo-Pacific partners while bolstering member states' military resilience in response to US calls for greater burden sharing, predicted Sung.