By Focus | 2026-02-02

Indo-Pacific countries must tighten alliances and broaden deterrence as strategic competition intensifies and coercion increasingly blends military, economic and information tools, military leaders and defense industry executives meeting in Hawaii said.

The Honolulu Defense Forum, hosted by Pacific Forum International, drew more than 400 military leaders, diplomats, arms manufacturers and investors from January 11–13. The agenda emphasized "widening and improving credible deterrence" and gaining "operational advantage through information, AI [artificial intelligence] and data," with sessions on expansionism, hybrid threats spanning space and cyber, and steps to increase predictability for the defense industrial base, US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) said.

Adm. Samuel J. Paparo, the commander of INDOPACOM, framed coalition operations as the region's decisive advantage and urged partners to continue integrating their capabilities. "Alliances and partnerships are our strategic center of gravity," Paparo said.

Immediate readiness essential

However, deterrence depends on readiness now, not only on long-term planning, as some forecasts point to 2027 as an early timeline for a possible Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan, said Paparo. "We have to be ready now, we have to be ready in 2027, we have to be ready in 2028," he said, according to Defense One, as he described folding information operations into "every plan, every investment, every operation."

Meanwhile, "gray zone" tactics -- those that fall short of war -- are eroding the lines that traditionally separated crisis from normal competition, said speakers. One of the region's biggest threats is the "weaponization of everything, the weaponization of economy, technology, resources, information and cyberspace," Japanese Defense Minister Shinjirō Koizumi said, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

Ambiguity itself is a strategic weapon, said Koizumi, adding that the boundaries "between peacetime and contingency, between military and non-military, between truth and fake news … are no longer clearly visible," according to the Star-Advertiser.

The response should be regional network-building rather than stand-alone national upgrades, he said. He urged countries to connect their defense efforts "like a web" to boost "interconnectivity" and "generate synergy" across the Indo-Pacific.

Layering those linkages will "enhance regional resilience" against crises, including disasters, and will allow the region to "respond collectively" even when some nations face harassment or coercion, he said

China always a concern

At the forum, most on-the-record sessions stopped short of naming a specific adversary, but China's influence and behavior were a persistent reference point.

Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr. was more explicit, describing cooperation with the United States to "collaborate in sharing intelligence and building up cybersecurity capabilities but also building economic opportunities," Hawaii News Now reported.

Whipps pointed to problems that his government has raised publicly, including allegations of illegal fishing and influence activities. Deterrence requires sustained presence and community resilience alongside traditional military power, he said. "Deterrence demands presence -- in our skies, in our seas, in our networks -- and we need to build resilient communities that are immune to and, most importantly, forge a shared prosperity through peace," he said.

Concerns about coercion were not limited to the Pacific Islands. The Philippines is "facing a big challenge from China's expansionism," said Gen. Romeo Brawner, chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. He cited rival claims in the South China Sea and in Manila's Exclusive Economic Zone.

The military is prioritizing alliances, including expanded joint activities and maritime patrols with the United States in the South China Sea to reinforce freedom of navigation and counter pressure on Philippine-claimed waters, he said.

Industrial and technological requirements

Alongside strategy, the forum highlighted the industrial and technological requirements of deterrence, as officials and companies said that production speed and supply-chain resilience are increasingly operational factors.

The Pentagon is seeking "radically different outcomes" to match the pace of modern conflict, Mike Cadenazzi, an assistant US war secretary focused on industrial base policy, said, according to Defense One.

Regional competition now touches the broader innovation ecosystem and the defense supply chain, Paparo the INDOPACOM commander told an audience including investors and technology executives.

The evolving nature of work in the Indo-Pacific matters "to every leader in this room and by extension, to every investor, engineer, researcher, entrepreneur," he said, according to the Star-Advertiser.

The forum underscored a push for "increasing predictability for the defense industrial base," said INDOPACOM.

An industrial base that can count on predictability would be instrumental in meeting a US objective that Paparo described: projecting such power in the Indo-Pacific that "our would-be adversaries do not even consider aggression."