By AFP and Focus | 2026-06-15

SYDNEY -- China is capable of launching a direct missile strike on Australia, and the threat is mounting as Beijing expands its long-range and hypersonic arsenal while building artificial islands in the South China Sea, according to an Australian think-tank.

A June 14 report by the Lowy Institute found Australia's most immediate direct military threat comes from Chinese missiles launched from warships, submarines and a new intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the continent from mainland China.

Growing missile reach

China's capacity to strike Australia would grow over the next decade as "the DF-27 [Dong Feng-27] intermediate-range ballistic missile, and potentially a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile, grow in service numbers," it said.

The DF-27 missile has a range of 5,000 to 8,000km, the US military said in December.

The direct military threat posed to Australia was not well understood by the public, the report said, adding that it was assessing Beijing's capability and not its intentions.

Sam Roggeveen, the director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, told AFP the report was "neither hawkish nor dovish, neither alarmist nor complacent."

"I think the growth of the People's Liberation Army is the most important thing to happen to Australian security since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there is a pressing need for a more informed Australian discussion about it," he said.

Multiple threats

Australia reshaped its military strategy three years ago in response to China's rapid naval buildup and rising friction between Beijing and Washington, focusing on deterring an adversary from its northern approaches.

However, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government has been reluctant to talk about the potential for a direct attack on the Australian mainland.

Although China's ability to sever undersea communication cables, cyberattacks and interdiction of maritime trade are the primary risk for Australia, "the direct strike threat is real and growing," the report said.

The DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile could reach northern Australia if deployed from one of Beijing's artificially built islands in the South China Sea, it said.

The threat to Australia would "dramatically escalate" if China fielded a crewed or drone long-range bomber, or deployed bombers or missiles on Pacific islands close to Australia, the report said. It added that China has "actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018" and that any such base "would bring central Australia within H-6 combat range." The H-6 is a Chinese strategic bomber.

China's cyber forces pose an immediate threat, with Beijing's actors found "operating within US medical, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure networks, pre-positioned for activation in a crisis rather than for immediate exploitation," the report said.

In an effort to protect itself, Australia has been striving to cement security ties with South Pacific nations and to prevent Beijing from gaining a base.