By Wu Qiaoxi | 2025-06-23

China's nuclear arsenal is expanding at a pace unmatched by any other country, according to the latest annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The report released on June 16 estimates that Beijing now holds at least 600 nuclear warheads, a sharp increase from 500 the previous year, with approximately 100 new warheads added annually since 2023. I

The Chinese nuclear arsenal "is expected to keep growing over the coming decade," the report said.

That prospect is raising fresh concerns among the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

With 600 warheads, China ranks third globally in nuclear stockpile size, trailing only Russia with 5,459 and the United States with 5,177, according to SIPRI.

China has now surpassed the United Kingdom and France in its nuclear inventory, and has "the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal in the world," SIPRI noted.

Its growth trajectory is clear. SIPRI projects China could field as many as 1,500 warheads by 2035 -- a level that, if realized, would mark a tectonic shift in the global nuclear balance.

Nuclear buildup

The expansion comes with extensive infrastructure upgrades.

As of January, China had completed or was near completion of approximately 350 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across six regions -- three in northern deserts and three in eastern mountainous zones.

"Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade," the SIPRI report stated.

However, the total number of warheads remains much smaller than that of the United States or Russia.

China's modernization effort includes deployment of missiles with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, notably on the DF-5 and DF-41 ICBMs, as well as the expansion of its nuclear triad with submarine-launched ballistic missiles and a next-generation nuclear-capable bomber.

Hans Kristensen, associate senior fellow at SIPRI and director of the Federation of American Scientists' nuclear information project, attributed the buildup to multiple drivers, including President Xi Jinping's call that China "must be a world-class military power by the middle of the century."

Beijing may have concluded that its previous minimum deterrent posture was no longer sufficient, especially in light of increasingly capable US missile defense systems, Kristensen, as reported by the South China Morning Post on June 16, added.

Despite the ramp-up, Kristensen questioned the credibility of China using its strategic ICBMs in regional conflicts, stating that threatening "[an] attack with central strategic ICBM forces against the US homeland over a regional scenario like Taiwan probably is not credible."

"It would trigger a significant US nuclear retaliation against China."

China follows "a policy of 'no first use' of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances and has committed unconditionally to not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear weapon states and nuclear-weapon-free zones," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on June 16, as reported by Newsweek.

Growing concerns

Nevertheless, China's growing capabilities are fueling regional anxieties.

As reported by Indian Express, SIPRI noted that while Pakistan remains India's primary deterrence focus, India is now placing "growing emphasis on longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China."

New Delhi is adapting to the strategic implications of Beijing's nuclear rise, potentially sparking a broader arms race in Asia, the shift suggests.

China's rapidly growing nuclear arsenal is driving "security anxiety" in Australia, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said in early June during his visit to Indonesia.

China's nuclear expansion is not solely about military parity, analysts say.

The true aim of China's buildup is to undermine the credibility of US security guarantees, thereby pressuring US allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines to rethink their alignment with Washington, Kyle Balzer and Dan Blumenthal wrote in Foreign Policy last November.

"China's nuclear geopolitics is about destabilizing the maritime barrier now set up against it," Balzer and Blumenthal added.

In their analysis, Chinese military planners increasingly see modernized nuclear weapons as a "'trump card' that can impede external intervention in regional affairs."

China's refusal to engage in nuclear arms control talks further complicates the picture, risking deepened strategic mistrust and accelerated arms competition in the region.

Beijing has dismissed US proposals for nuclear transparency and limitations as "unfair and unrealistic."