By Zarak Khan | 2025-09-29

India has taken a significant step in modernizing its nuclear deterrent, successfully carrying out the first test launch of its 2,000km-range Agni-Prime (Agni-P) missile from a rail-based mobile launcher, the Indian Defense Ministry said.

The September 24 test took place under a "full operational scenario" conducted by the Defense Research and Development Organization and Strategic Forces Command, which oversees India's nuclear arsenal, according to a statement from the Defense Ministry.

The Agni-P, classified as a medium-range ballistic missile, can launch from anywhere on the national rail network, a major advance in Indian second-strike capability.

Second-strike capability means being able to retaliate with nuclear weapons even after suffering a nuclear first strike.

Rajnath Singh, India's defense minister, posted on X that this "first-of-its-kind launch" from a specially designed rail-based mobile launcher allows for "cross country mobility and launch within a short reaction time with reduced visibility" without preconditions.

The Defense Ministry confirmed the missile's trajectory was tracked by multiple ground stations and that the test was a "textbook launch" that met "all mission objectives."

The Agni-P launch follows the August test of the Agni-V, an intermediate-range ballistic missile, from a test range in Odisha.

Deterring China and Pakistan

India's neighbors China and Pakistan are nuclear-armed, with China estimated to possess about 600 nuclear warheads as of January, while India maintains approximately 180, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

India's drive to upgrade its nuclear arsenal, including the development of rail-mobile missile systems, is largely shaped by China's rapid military buildup and an expanding strategic arsenal, analysts say.

For its part, China just days before the Agni-P test sent its missile-tracking vessel, the Yuan Wang 5, to the Indian Ocean, raising concerns in New Delhi about possible use of the ship's advanced surveillance capabilities to monitor the launch, according to Deccan Herald.

Tensions between the two countries remain high after deadly June 2022 clashes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a de facto and uneasily maintained boundary separating the two rivals in the Ladakh region.

The confrontation resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers, marking the first shots fired since 1975 along the LAC.

Beijing has invested heavily in road and rail infrastructure along the LAC so that it can quickly move troops and equipment.

"India's requirement for a long-range, but not intercontinental, missile is dictated by its threat perception of China," Manpreet Sethi, a distinguished fellow at New Delhi's Center for Air Power Studies, told Al Jazeera in August.

However, India's recent missile testing also sends a message to Pakistan.

Tensions with Pakistan remain high following a brief May air war.

"Nuclear weapons are ... used for signalling deterrence to adversaries," said Sandeep Unnithan, executive editor of India Today, in his analysis.

With Agni-P, Defense Minister Singh was suggesting "the survivability and effectiveness of a small but robust Indian nuclear arsenal as part of a broader strategy of strategic deterrence against Pakistan and China," Unnithan said.

"Improving mobility and readiness through systems like Agni-P" lets New Delhi strengthen its second-strike deterrence while adhering to a policy of "credible minimum deterrence" and no first use of nuclear arms, Kapil Anand, a Mumbai-based defense analyst, told Focus.

Rail-based mobility

India's rail network spans about 70,000km, one of the world's largest, but connectivity is still incomplete in remote frontier areas bordering China, including parts of the northeast and the high-altitude sectors of Ladakh.

In recent years, the Indian government has accelerated the construction and modernization of roads, tunnels and bridges to integrate these strategic regions into its rail network.

A rail-based launch system is harder to "track and target" than are launch sites, complicating adversary targeting efforts, the Indian news site Federal noted.

However, it said that rail tracks themselves can be "vulnerable to sabotage," a potential risk that would be magnified in wartime.