By Joyce Huang | 2026-05-06

Amid soaring drone exports, Taiwan is aiming to triple the output value of its drone industry by 2030, an approach analysts say will strengthen its asymmetric defense against a potential attack by China.

"We're pretty bullish about the sector's prospects in the next 5 to 10 years … as geopolitical tensions have driven countries [including Taiwan] to expand their drone fleets," Gene Su, general manager of Thunder Tiger Corp., told Focus.

Rising demand will come from both abroad and at home, he added.

Thunder Tiger is a drone manufacturer headquartered in Taichung, central Taiwan.

Drone surge

Su echoed Taiwanese Prime Minister Cho Jung-tai's vision. Cho told a cabinet meeting in late April that Taiwan will make a five-year investment of 44.2 billion NTD ($1.4 billion) to boost the output value of its drone industry to 40 billion NTD ($1.27 billion) by 2030.

Almost half of the investment, or 20 billion NTD ($636 million), will likely be used to acquire dual use drones, which are designed for civilian purposes by police or firefighters and can be repurposed for military operations, according to Su.

The industry's annual output, including sales of components and whole-unit drones, more than doubled from $5 billion NTD ($158 million) in 2024 to 12.9 billion NTD ($410 million) in 2025, according to statistics released by Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs in late April.

It is projected to reach 20 billion NTD ($636 million) in 2026.

'Hellscape' strategy

With government initiatives in place, the sector is hoping to tap Taiwan's local market, where demand remains largely unmet, Thunder Tiger's Su said.

Taiwan's government is embracing the upgraded concept of "hellscape" defense after recent lessons from the US-Israeli war with Iran, Su theorized.

For weeks, Iran has sent cheap Shahed drones to exhaust expensive US fighter jets or to pound infrastructure, including power plants and oil fields in neighboring countries, he added.

The hellscape concept of operations across the Taiwan Strait "leverages dense, multidirectional fires generated by drones and other uncrewed systems to attrite the Chinese invasion fleet and disrupt the PLA's [People's Liberation Army's] … amphibious landing" at the water's edge, the Center for a New American Security said in a February report.

Adopting it requires Taiwan to produce combat drones at greater scale than now, Su said.

For example, with innovative assembly lines, Thunder Tiger can produce hundreds of airborne drones and tens of undersea drones each month at a fraction of the cost of traditional weaponry, he added.

"Future warfare will be all about attrition. Countries with a maximum capacity of making drones will have a better chance of outlasting the opponent," Su said.

Thunder Tiger recently launched its latest series of Papa DELTA drones, modeled on the US military's LUCAS drone, and the SeaShark 800 undersea drone. It hopes to tap markets in Taiwan and other countries along the strategic "first island chain." That chain includes Japan and the Philippines.

Drone procurement

The company, in April, won two drone procurement contracts from Taiwan's military. It plans to acquire almost 50,000 units by 2027 across five drone types, with Group 1 first-person-view (FPV) drones making up the bulk of the purchases.

Thunder Tiger's Overkill FPV drone was vetted for US government and military use after receiving the Defense Department's Blue UAS certification last year.

Su expects stronger domestic demand for asymmetric weaponry, mainly combat drones, after Taiwan finalizes its proposed 1.25 trillion NTD ($40 billion) special military budget for the next eight years. So far Taiwan's opposition, which controls parliament, has blocked the bill.

The proposed budget will combine foreign acquisitions with domestic procurement, including roughly 200,000 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Taiwan's drone industry, however, faces major challenges in scaling up. They include production capacity constraints and reliance on foreign technology or on Chinese raw materials, given China's dominance in the global drone supply chain, according to Nikkei Asia.

Export momentum

Taiwan's niche in building a "non-red" drone supply chain free from Chinese components and control will take shape as democratic allies with cybersecurity concerns stop placing orders for Chinese-made drones, said Su.

Taiwan's drone exports will continue to gain momentum as countries rush to replenish or build up their drone arsenals, he added.

The island's exports of whole-unit drones grew 21-fold to $2.95 billion NTD ($93.8 million) last year, official statistics showed.

Thanks to demand from Central and Eastern Europe, Taiwan's drone exports rose further to almost $116 million in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the total recorded for all of last year, the data showed.

Czechia and Poland were the two biggest buyers, accounting respectively for $100 million and $11.8 million in sales during the first quarter. Both are considered gateways for onward shipments to Ukraine.