By Jia Feimao | 2025-04-14

China's constant exercises near Taiwan are wearing down the island's military capabilities, analysts warn.

Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years and held multiple large-scale exercises around the island that observers often describe as rehearsals for a blockade and seizure of the territory.

Most recently, China on April 1-2 conducted a joint military exercise codenamed Strait Thunder-2025A around Taiwan in the middle and southern parts of the Taiwan Strait as well as the East China Sea.

As part of the drills, the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) dispatched 135 military aircraft sorties and 23 warships.

China's Shandong aircraft carrier carried out drills testing the ability to "blockade" Taiwan, the Eastern Theater Command said.S

In mid-March, China carried out similar "joint combat readiness patrols" twice in a day.

The PLA's frequent, high-intensity incursions have disrupted Taiwan's scheduled training and equipment maintenance, while complicating logistical efforts, Su Tzu-yun, director of the Division of Strategy and Resources at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Focus.

The navy failed to maintain more than half of its major warships on schedule, often having to extend repair periods, a 2024 report from Taiwan's National Audit Office revealed.

Prolonged confrontations with Chinese vessels have caused naval equipment and personnel fatigue, military officials have acknowledged.

"The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] is now adopting a 'drip, drip strategy'. Our military's combat power is being steadily eroded every day," former Ministry of National Defense official Lu Deyun wrote on Facebook on April 1.

Time is extremely unfavorable to Taiwan, he said.

Refusing to 'go large' needlessly

However, Su of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research proposed some counter-strategies.

Taiwan should not try to match Chinese military assets by "going large" in every situation, said Su.

In situations short of outright war, Taiwan should deploy lightly manned and lightly armed patrol vessels to monitor PLA ships, he suggested.

Using that approach negates the perception that Taiwan needs to match China pound for pound in a standoff.

He also proposed using drones to accompany Chinese warplanes that intrude on Taiwan's airspace, reducing the need for frequent pilot deployments.

"The key is to adopt a mindset of 'using an inferior horse to compete with a superior horse' in responding to China's war of attrition," he said.

Su raised concerns over the actions of China's coast guard.

China's coast guard and maritime militia vessels have long been part of these incursions, demonstrating the infiltration of irregular forces.

During the latest exercise, Chinese coast guard vessels conducted inspection and interception drills around Taiwan, employing so-called maritime blockade tactics.

On April 2, Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration Deputy Director-General Hsieh Ching-chin confirmed at a news conference that three suspected Chinese militia vessels had been detected off Hualien, Taiwan, participating in the military exercise.

China's coast guard drills targeted natural gas tankers and military supply ships operating under the guise of "law enforcement patrols," said Su.

Even if unable to fully blockade Taiwan, the actions "could still have a chilling effect and deter other ships from entering the Taiwan Strait," he said.

China's 'python strategy'

While the PLA practices outer-circle blockade tactics, the Chinese Coast Guard inspects and intercepts merchant ships in the inner circle, implementing what Su called the "python strategy -- encirclement without direct attack to cut off Taiwan's maritime supply lines."

As of the end of March, 64 incidents of harassment by the Chinese Coast Guard have been reported over the past 13 months.

However, China's pressure presents an opportunity for Taiwan to improve contingency capabilities by implementing combat-readiness rotations, redeployments and strengthened drills and training, Chen Wen-chia, a senior advisor at the Institute for National Policy Research, said.

Taiwan should strengthen coordination between its coast guard and navy, and work with the international community to prevent China from changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait through a "war of attrition," he said.