By Wu Qiaoxi | 2026-07-20

China's launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a submarine into the South Pacific was intended to send a strategic message to the United States and highlight the growth of Beijing's nuclear arsenal, security analysts say.

A Chinese submarine July 6 launched the missile, which landed in international waters. The test marked the first time Beijing has launched such a weapon into the open Pacific. "The most important message is the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is becoming a powerful military with a very strong strategic nuclear capability," said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think-tank.

China's state-run Global Times said the test demonstrated Beijing's continuously growing "nuclear triad" of land-, sea- and aircraft-based nuclear weapons, according to a Reuters analysis.

The launch showed that China's military has developed what is known as a second-strike capability, said Dominic Meagher, a research fellow at the Australian National University's Crawford School of Public Policy. Having that capability means that even if China were struck first, it could retaliate, since its launch capability could come from anywhere in the ocean or on land, he said.

Identity of submarine and missile in question

Chinese state media did not disclose the submarine or missile model involved, saying only that the launch platform was a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Analysts and academics cited by Reuters assessed that China used a Type 094 submarine, which a 2022 U.S. Department of Defense report said Beijing has used to conduct near-continuous nuclear deterrence patrols.

China's state-run Global Times, citing military analyst Zhang Junshe, said the missile was likely a JL-3, a weapon unveiled at a military parade last year with a range exceeding 10,000km.

But Taiwanese Defense Minister Koo Li-hsiung said on July 8 that Taiwan's military, drawing on joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data and multiple intelligence sources, assessed the weapon as a JL-2, an older second-generation submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of about 7,400 to 9,000km.

Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the test was not limited to evaluating the missile and submarine's technical performance. It allowed China to assess how effectively it could maintain command, control and communications with a nuclear submarine attempting to remain concealed.

"There are still challenges ahead but it would seem they are getting close to an operational strike capability here … they are probably trying to demonstrate that even if they can't get into a position to hit the continental U.S., they could still target Guam and Hawaii," Koh said.

The test drew criticism from Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and the United States. Australian defense analyst Jennifer Parker said the launch reflected not only China's military development but also Beijing's willingness to project military power more assertively across the region.

China's Ministry of National Defense dismissed the criticism as distorted and sensationalized reporting.

Deficient notification

Although Beijing described the test as routine, the advance notice it provided fell short of international standards, according to a July 7 analysis by Joseph Rodgers, Bonny Lin and Leon Li of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. China gave the United States and Japan only a few hours' warning and Australia roughly 23 hours' notice, the analysts said.

China does not subscribe to the Hague Code of Conduct (HCC) against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, which requires participating states to notify all 140 members at least 24 hours before a launch and provide the general launch area, direction and missile class. "China is the only major space-faring nation with ballistic missiles that remains entirely outside" the code, CSIS wrote.

China behaved likewise in 2024. After a similar Chinese missile test in 2024, the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and France criticized Beijing for inadequate advance notice, the analysts said. Even so, Chinese diplomats have cited the 2024 warning as evidence of their government's transparency.

The HCC took effect in November 2002. As long as China stays outside that framework, it could give other countries like North Korea and Iran cover to conduct missile tests without advance notice, CSIS wrote.