By Hua Ziliang | 2025-03-05

Tensions have flared once again over Scarborough Shoal after Chinese and Philippine recently aircraft engaged in a tense mid-air standoff over the South China Sea.

A Philippine patrol aircraft and a Chinese military helicopter on February 18 engaged in a 30-minute impasse over the waters near Scarborough Shoal (referred to by the Philippines as Panatag Shoal).

The Chinese aircraft aggressively approached from above, at one point coming within just three meters.

The Philippine pilot warned the Chinese aircraft, telling its conduct was "extremely dangerous."

China's Southern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) later accused the Philippines of "illegally intruding into Chinese airspace and distorting the truth."

Both sides released video footage of the encounter.

Scarborough Shoal, the largest coral atoll in the South China Sea, lies in the eastern part of the Zhongsha Islands.

It spans an area of 150 square km and lies approximately 230km from Subic Bay in the Philippines and 880km from China's Hainan Island.

The surrounding waters are rich in fisheries and may also contain oil and gas reserves.

In addition, Scarborough Shoal is situated at the northern gateway of the South China Sea, which sees an estimated $3.4 trillion annually in maritime trade.

It falls within the Philippines' 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

However, China claims "historical rights" over the shoal and refuses to recognize international rulings on the matter.

Escalating tensions

Since the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, China has effectively controlled the area, increasing patrols by its coast guard and military.

In September 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard released footage showing its personnel cutting a "floating barrier" installed by China around the shoal, accusing Beijing of preventing Philippine fishermen from accessing the area.

In January this year, Manila accused China of deploying a large coast guard vessel into the Philippine EEZ, resulting in another brief maritime standoff.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adopted a four-pronged South China Sea Strategy to deal with China's continued expansion, according to Aaron Jed Rabena, a researcher at the University of the Philippines Asian Center.

First it involves implementing an "public exposure strategy" by actively publicizing China's activities in the South China Sea to draw international media attention and increase diplomatic pressure, said Rabena.

Second, the plan includes military and legal measures by promoting legislation such as the Maritime Zones Act to incorporate Scarborough Shoal and other islands into Philippine sovereignty.

Third, it seeks to deepen alliances' cooperation by expanding joint military exercises and strengthening defense cooperation with the United States, Japan and Australia

Fourth, it calls for applying multilateral diplomatic pressure to promote the legitimacy of the South China Sea arbitration and isolate China.

China has responded by demarcating new territorial baselines around Scarborough Shoal, incorporating more of the South China Sea into its claimed territory and escalating the conflict.

Wu Shicun, founding president of China's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, suggested at the Munich Security Conference that Beijing has "more diverse tools" at its disposal, the South China Morning Post reported February 18.

If the Philippines pursues another international arbitration case, China could adopt more aggressive countermeasures, such as economic sanctions or military intimidation, Wu said.

International support

As tensions in the South China Sea mount, the United States and its allies have increasingly demonstrated support for the Philippines.

Following joint US-Philippine military exercises in January, France deployed its aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle, to conduct joint drills with Philippine forces in late February.

The French carrier group later docked in Subic Bay, where the two countries signed agreements to deepen their alliance.

Meanwhile, defense ministers from Japan and the Philippines met February in Manila and announced the establishment of a strategic dialogue.