By Angelo Jo Tugado | 2025-03-20

With the Philippines' midterm elections approaching, analysts are warning about potential Chinese efforts to influence the country's political landscape via social media campaigns and financial support.

The 2025 Philippine general election is set for May 12.

Beijing may be attempting to expand its influence by supporting candidates seen as favorable to its interests and promoting pro-China narratives on social media, say observers.

Former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio during a February 17 discussion hosted by the Stratbase Institute, a Philippine research group, warned of disinformation campaigns, citing Facebook's past removal of troll accounts linked to China, according to Advocates Philippines.

"They launch social media campaigns to defend certain politicians, while also trying to make Filipinos doubt our claim over the West Philippine Sea," he said, using the Filipino name for areas of the South China Sea claimed by Manila.

China claims most of the South China Sea despite an international tribunal ruling it without basis, and its coast guard has clashed repeatedly with that of the Philippines, sparking fears of an armed conflict.

Research from AidData supports Carpio's concerns, showing that China has enlisted Filipino social media influencers and troll farms to promote pro-China narratives.

These campaigns often portray Beijing as a cooperative partner while downplaying tensions in the West Philippine Sea, the research group said in a study last September, according to Philstar.

Backlash

Despite China's efforts, persistent survey data indicate most Filipinos prefer leaders who advocate for the country's sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea.

A March 7 survey by Social Weather Stations revealed that 78% of Filipinos favor candidates who take a firm stance against China's actions in the area.

This sentiment is particularly strong in Metro Manila, where 87% of respondents support such candidates.

Because candidates linked to pro-China views face significant voter opposition, some political figures are attempting to rebrand themselves.

Certain allies of former president Rodrigo Duterte -- who faced criticism for his pro-China stance -- have adjusted their messaging to emphasize defending Philippine sovereignty, said Carpio.

"They're now wearing shirts that say, 'West Philippine Sea,' as if they've always defended it," Carpio said.

"We've seen this before," Carpio added. "Certain leaders, after getting elected, suddenly start echoing China's narratives."

Pro-China YouTube content frequently garners fewer than 20,000 views, and earlier attempts, such as the Chinese embassy's 2020 "Iisang Dagat (One Sea)" music video, triggered public backlash, AidData reported.

'Chinese lackeys'

The widespread distrust of China has influenced Philippine politics.

On February 15, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized at a campaign event that no candidates in his administration coalition backs a pivot-to-China policy.

"None of [our candidates] are Chinese lackeys who cheered while our Coast Guard was being water-cannoned by big Chinese ships," he said.

Duterte's former administration was all too happy for the Philippines "to be a province of China," he said.

Making China a talking point is a potentially winning formula, Dennis Coronacion, chairman of the political science department at University of Santo Tomas in Manila, said, according to AFP.

"In the past, foreign policy and the talk about China was never an election issue, so if it's going to be... I think he can get the support of many Filipinos," he said, pointing to the surveys that showed citizens had strong feelings about China.

"They don't like what China is doing to us."