By Hua Ziliang | 2025-03-24

Continued population decline, poor education and the unwillingness of young Chinese to join their nation's military have all hindered the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from recruiting and retaining key talent, according to a recent report.

While China has about 100 million potential military-age residents aged 18 to 23, younger Chinese are making up an ever-smaller share of the population, according to the report published by Rand Corporation on January 30.

China's population has declined for three consecutive years and is expected to continue shrinking before 2030, with the proportion of the population under 18 falling from 35% in 1990 to below 20%, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics.

The demographic changes, coupled with the transformation of the education and economic environment, make it uncertain whether the PLA can develop into the "technologically strong army capable of winning battles" envisioned by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The PLA's modernization goals include developing information warfare and joint operations -- combat models that highly depend on technologies such as cyber warfare, electronic warfare and cross-service coordinated operations.

As a result, the army has high demand for professionals with scientific and technological backgrounds, expertise in operating complex systems and fast decision-making skills.

However, technical training and vocational education are underdeveloped in China's education system, making it difficult to meet the military's demand for professional and technical talents, according to the report.

Talent shortage

While the PLA is striving to shift from a traditional manpower-intensive army to a technology-driven military force, demographic changes and talent shortages are creating uncertainty, the report added.

The only-child generation is considered to have relatively weak mental resilience and physical fitness, which raises concerns within the military about its readiness for service, it noted.

This cohort generally lacks physical fitness and stress resistance because it grew up in a relatively well-provided environment, the report added.

The issue of compensation is another major obstacle.

The technology industry offers more attractive salaries and career development, far exceeding military compensation.

The Chinese government has taken various measures to improve recruitment, including conducting twice-a-year conscription, allowing veterans to re-enlist and improving veteran benefits.

However, the results have been limited.

The PLA has a high turnover rate, according to a report by The Economist published in November 2023.

Many soldiers leave the military as soon as they are eligible for benefits, said Ken Allen, a researcher of the Chinese military, adding that "there are more incentives to leave the PLA than to stay."

If it is unable to recruit the right talents, the PLA may be forced "to rethink its goals and assumptions about modernization, specifically whether it can adopt a Western or quasi-Western operational model," Rand wrote.

Against the backdrop of fading demographic dividends and intensified social changes, how the PLA can break through the talent dilemma will become a major problem in China's military modernization.