By Qu Qiaoxi | 2025-08-05

Indonesian President President Prabowo Subianto's attendance at the BRICS summit in Brazil in July -- as a full member for the first time -- is fueling concerns over shifting global politics in Southeast Asia.

On January 7, Indonesia became the first Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nation to formally join BRICS, an intergovernmental bloc consisting of countries from the Global South.

Subianto's participation at the summit signaled Indonesia's growing closeness with BRICS, which was established in 2009 by China, Russia, Brazil and India, with South Africa joining the following year.

In recent years, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia have also joined, bringing the current membership to 10.

BRICS economies now account for more than 40% of global output in terms of purchasing power parity, exceeding the Group of Seven's share of nearly 30%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Indonesia is aiming for 8% GDP growth and hopes to expand its reach into Asian, African and Latin American markets through BRICS and other Global South partners. It also seeks low-cost financing through the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), say experts.

Yohanes Sulaiman, associate professor at Jenderal Achmad Yani University, told The Straits Times on July 8 that the NDB's appeal lies in "money without much scrutiny."

Compared to Western-led multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF, the NDB imposes fewer conditions, offering more flexible financing options for projects like Indonesia's new capital city, the national free lunch program and coastal infrastructure development, Sulaiman said.

ASEAN unity strained

Indonesia's accession to BRICS has raised concerns about its potential impact on ASEAN's tradition of non-alignment and internal cohesion.

Its membership has prompted ASEAN member states Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam to strengthen their own engagement with the group, each becoming a BRICS partner country.

During his visit to Bangkok in May, Prabowo publicly voiced support for Thailand's bid to join BRICS, leading some observers to worry about the emergence of a "BRICS caucus" within ASEAN.

Indonesian scholar Teuku Rezasyah told The Straits Times on July 8 that Indonesia's support for Thailand "may produce a new caucus inside ASEAN, outside the already established Malay network involving Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei."

ASEAN's political orientation and internal unity will be further tested if Russian President Vladimir Putin and other BRICS leaders are invited to the bloc's summit scheduled for October, Derek Grossman, an adjunct lecturer at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, warned in a July article for Foreign Policy.

ASEAN operates on a consensus-based decision-making model, requiring full agreement from all member states for major actions, and has long upheld non-alignment to preserve its strategic autonomy.

Grossman noted that given the low likelihood of ASEAN reaching consensus on joining BRICS, "individual ASEAN members are taking it upon themselves to engage BRICS, further diluting and weakening ASEAN from within."

He pointed to China's central role in BRICS as a key sticking point.

Some ASEAN countries such as the Philippines and Singapore, as well as BRICS member Indonesia and partner Vietnam, may be wary of giving Beijing another channel to expand its influence within the region, Grossman wrote.

Differences in China strategy have long existed within the bloc. For example, both the Philippines and Vietnam oppose granting Beijing additional leverage in ASEAN-led negotiations over a South China Sea Code of Conduct, he added.

For its part, the Indonesian government continues to emphasize its non-aligned stance.

Foreign Minister Sugiono said in an interview with Antara on July 24 that Indonesia's BRICS membership was part of its independent and active foreign policy.

"Our history shows that when we take sides with one bloc of power, our society becomes divided," he said.