By Wu Qiaoxi | 2026-05-22

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has again warned that the Philippines could be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan, as Manila bolsters security ties with the United States and Japan amid rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

Speaking to Japanese media at Malacañang Palace on May 18 ahead of a state visit to Japan from May 26 to 29, Marcos said the Philippines -- unlike Japan -- has little choice but to become involved in a Taiwan contingency because of its proximity to Taiwan and the large number of Filipinos living there.

Geographic risk

"In the Philippines, we do not have a choice because Taiwan is so close to the Philippines, and we have almost 200,000 Filipino nationals living and working in Taiwan," Marcos said.

"Just looking at the map, you can tell that the northern Philippines at the very least is going to be part of that or will feel the effects," he added.

The Philippines' northernmost point, Itbayat island, sits roughly 160km from Taiwan.

Marcos nonetheless reaffirmed the Philippines' commitment to the "One China" policy, saying Manila does not seek conflict and would continue urging all parties to pursue a peaceful resolution.

It was not the first time Marcos had raised the prospect.

"To be very practical about it, if there is a confrontation over Taiwan between China and the United States, there is no way that the Philippines can stay out of it, simply because of our physical geographic location," he told Indian outlet Firstpost during a visit to India last August.

The remarks highlighted Manila's increasingly difficult task of balancing Chinese pressure, Taiwan Strait security risks and alliances with Washington and Tokyo.

Expanding cooperation

Manila has stepped up defense cooperation in recent months. The U.S.-Philippine Exercise Balikatan 2026 in April and May was the largest iteration ever of Balikatan, with roughly 17,000 troops taking part. Japan formally sent Self-Defense Forces personnel for the first time. Balikatan 2026 included air defense and live-fire counter-landing drills, as well as maritime strike exercises in waters off the country's far north near Taiwan.

The Washington Post last year reported that the Philippines and Taiwan have quietly expanded security cooperation in response to growing regional tensions. Philippine and Taiwanese coast guard vessels conducted joint patrols in the Bashi Channel, while Taiwanese navy and marine observers attended a U.S.-Philippine joint exercise and participated in war-gaming sessions.

Strategic exposure

Under Marcos, the Philippines has allowed U.S. missile deployments on its territory and granted American forces access to additional military bases, including some near Taiwan, making the Philippines one of the front-line states in U.S.-led efforts to counter China's regional expansion.

Beijing criticized Marcos's remarks. The Filipino population in Taiwan and geographic proximity are no excuse for interference in another country's internal affairs, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on May 19.

"We hope the Philippines will ... abide by the 'One China' principle with concrete action," Guo said.

Defense ties with Japan are flourishing as well. An early transfer of retired Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels to Manila is expected to be a topic of discussion for Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi soon in Tokyo.

Marcos said he wanted greater clarity on Japan's evolving security posture after Tokyo eased defense export restrictions and sent combat-capable troops to the Philippines for joint exercises for the first time in decades.

"We would like to hear more about … what exactly Japan intends to do and what they are willing to do," he said.