By Focus | 2025-03-12

China is pushing forward negotiations on a South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) with neighboring countries while at the same time aggressively asserting its territorial claims that are contrary to international law.

Speaking on the sidelines of the ongoing National People's Congress on March 7, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that the congress had completed the third reading of the COC text.

The COC is facing challenges due to differing interests.

China, claiming almost 90% of the South China Sea, wants the COC to cover only areas it controls, thus creating a framework to supports its disputed claims, and seeks a nonbinding framework that excludes external powers, such as the United States and several European countries, in regional security matters.

In contrast, the Philippines and Vietnam are pushing for broader inclusion of disputed areas.

"China evidently benefits from the status quo as it indurates and stretches its military presence in the area. But ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] cannot afford to be oblivious as the disputed waters constantly and ominously change," wrote Jaime Naval, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines Diliman.

In an article published on East Asia Forum in November, Naval highlighted China's strategic efforts to influence the COC with terms that favor Beijing, potentially putting ASEAN claimant states at a disadvantage.

Rising tensions

Beijing claims most of the South China Sea despite an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis, and its coast guard has clashed repeatedly with that of the Philippines, sparking fears of an armed conflict.

The Philippines has accused China of aggressive maritime actions, including the use of water cannons, dangerous maneuvers against Philippine vessels and blocking of Philippine resupply missions to outposts in contested waters.

China's increasing aggression in the disputed waters is now considered the greatest threat to Philippine national security, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said in an interview on March 5.

"The greatest external threat actually is Chinese aggression, Chinese expansionism and the attempt by China to change the international law through the use of force or acquiescence ... or its attempt to reshape the world order to one that it controls," he said.

Wang described the maritime confrontations between Beijing and Manila as a "shadow play" orchestrated by the Philippines to tarnish China's image, claiming that external forces and Western media had amplified these disputes.

He reaffirmed Beijing's stance on defending its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, including over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, and warned that "infringement and provocation will backfire" and that "those acting as others' chess pieces are bound to be discarded."

Wang also took aim at the United States, criticizing Washington's Indo-Pacific Strategy and accusing it of "stirring up troubles and creating disputes" in the region.

Countering China

As Beijing asserts its claims, regional actors have increasingly sought to reinforce their positions and strengthen ties with Western allies.

The past year has seen a noticeable uptick in US, European and Japanese naval deployments in the South China Sea.

European diplomats have highlighted the growing Western presence, emphasizing their intent to uphold a rules-based order rather than engage in direct confrontation, according to a Nikkei Asia report in March.

"In 2024, there were more Europeans here ... more frigates than the years before. That is a fact," a senior Western diplomat told the outlet, stressing that their presence underscores "freedom of navigation, respect for international law, and respect for sovereignty."

Beijing's assertive maritime actions, coupled with increasing Western naval deployments, signal an increasingly complex and tense security landscape in the South China Sea.

As discussions on the COC progress, ASEAN nations face the challenge of engaging diplomatically with China while strengthening defense cooperation with external partners.