By Feimao Jia | 2025-04-07

The Taiwanese military in March carried out for the first time a five-day "immediate combat response" drill to counter China's "gray zone" tactics.

As part of the exercises, the Taiwanese army set up barriers along the Tamsui River simulating blocking China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) from reaching Taipei, the country's capital.

According to a military source cited by local media, the drills on March 17 took place under the assumption that the PLA might suddenly escalate its military exercises or "gray zone" operations near Taiwan into an actual attack.

The term refers to actions that are provocative or aggressive but stop short of open conflict.

From January to March this year, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command conducted 11 joint combat readiness patrols, simulating a blockade of Taiwan.

The PLA has been practicing rapid deployment of military forces to encircle Taiwan through "joint combat readiness patrols," Chieh Chung, a research fellow at the Association of Strategic Foresight, told Focus.

The PLA's increasingly routine presence in the western Pacific, off the island's eastern coast, poses the greatest threat. The farther southeastern area is beyond Taiwan's surveillance range.

"The western Pacific serves as a refuge for Taiwan's air and naval forces. If the PLA first seizes control of this area, Taiwan's main warships and aircraft would be exposed, making it even more difficult to predict Beijing's attack timeline," Chieh warned.

Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo told the Legislative Yuan on March 19 that "immediate combat response" drills would occur in response to PLA exercises of a high-intensity attack.

"Once they begin to maneuver, we also need to anticipate their possible moves and conduct corresponding drills." Koo said.

"In the future, whenever PLA exercises reach a set scale, our level of combat readiness will automatically be elevated," Chieh said, stressing the need for Taiwan to refine its contingency plans, ensuring key combat units can achieve immediate combat readiness and reducing the risk of miscalculation.

Blockade threat

Beijing is prepared to blockade to isolate Taiwan from the rest of the world, the Wall Street Journal reported March 23.

"I think there's general agreement both in the United States and Taiwan that if China wanted, it could quarantine or blockade Taiwan today," Bonny Lin, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Journal.

The report also noted that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would spark a global crisis, provoke a military response by Taiwan and force the United States to choose whether to intervene.

With 96% of its energy and 70% of its food supply imported, Taiwan would face severe consequences if its transport routes were disrupted.

Once China implements a naval quarantine, the risks for commercial shipping would significantly increase, potentially paralyzing the supply chain.

One of the most immediate tactics is precision strikes on Taiwan's military bases and critical infrastructure, undermining its defense capabilities, according to the report.

Furthermore, Beijing could target Taiwan's digital infrastructure.

Taiwan is surrounded by more than a dozen subsea cables, which are key to external communications. Some of them have been sabotaged by suspected Chinese ships operating in the vicinity in the past.

The final option of the blockade tactics is cyberwarfare.

Almost every PLA large-scale exercise against Taiwan has been accompanied by cyberattacks and the spread of disinformation, Taipei says.

Preparing defenses

To counter a potential PLA blockade, Taiwan has been actively strengthening its infrastructure maintenance and implementing backup plans to deal with gray zone incursions.

President Lai Ching-te announced in February that the microwave bandwidth between Taiwan and the outlying Matsu Islands had expanded almost sixfold since 2023. While slower than submarine cables, microwaves provide a backup in case of disruptions.

In an INDSR Newsletter published in January, Xinbiao Jiang, an assistant researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, suggested that Taiwan accelerate its low-orbit satellite projects.

This step would ensure that critical services such as communications, finance, and healthcare remain operational if someone severs submarine cables.

Additionally, he recommended installing more microwave stations to enhance communication resilience.