By Wu Qiaoxi | 2025-06-16

China's interference in Burma's civil war and growing influence in the war-torn country have sparked overseas protests and triggered alarm in the West.

Snce the 2021 military coup, at least 6,000 civilians have been killed, more than 3.5 million have been displaced and 15 million are confronting hunger, including 2 million at risk of famine, United Nations (UN) estimates reveal.

Four years of political chaos has devastated Burma's economy and turned the country into a regional source of instability, marked by narcotics production, human trafficking and extensive cross-border fraud.

Without an end to the violence, Burma will continue on "the path to self-destruction," UN Special Envoy to Burma Julie Bishop warned on June 10.

While Western nations and neighboring countries have withdrawn investments due to human rights and political risks, China continues to invest, engaging both the military regime and opposition forces, say observers.

"Despite the ongoing civil war, China has not shuttered projects or withdrawn investment, granting it access to natural resources and investment opportunities that other countries deem too risky, and creating economic leverage," according to an analysis by Janes published June 5.

"In the West, [Burma's] civil war is often described as a 'forgotten conflict,'" Ye Myo Hein, a researcher at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, wrote in Foreign Affairs in April.

"But for China, the country is a key battleground where Beijing's regional ambitions, economic interests, and security concerns intersect."

China's influence in Burma has drawn protests from expatriates.

On June 8, Burmese nationals in Japan staged protests in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya to denounce what they see as Beijing's "willful domination" of their homeland for its own self-interest.

"We Burmese residing in Japan are demonstrating to urgently halt the Chinese government's meddling in [Burma's] domestic matters and its backing of the terrorist military that has unlawfully taken control," said protest leader James Than Lwin.

Multipronged strategy

One of Beijing's top priorities in Burma is securing a 2,500km-long oil-and-gas pipeline that stretches from the Indian Ocean to southern China.

This overland corridor could serve as a crucial alternative route for energy supply should conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait and endanger oil shipments through Strait of Malacca, according to a June 5 article in The Economist.

China, the world's second-largest oil importer, relies on the Strait of Malacca for more than 70% of its crude shipments.

This choke point has long been seen by Beijing as a strategic vulnerability over concerns about blockade and coercion. Establishing a land route through Burma is part of its broader effort to reduce dependence on vulnerable sea lanes.

To achieve this end, Beijing is employing a multipronged strategy: engaging all factions, providing military aid and using both pressure and incentives to align them with Chinese interests.

Beyond energy security, China seeks to stabilize mining operations, protect Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure, crack down on cross-border scams targeting Chinese citizens and limit Western influence in Burma.

The BRI is a Chinese-financed effort to build ports, railroads and other infrastructure to speed poor countries' exports of raw materials to China.

Power broker

However, the conflict is escalating.

The military junta controls only about 21% of Burma's territory, the BBC estimated in December. The deteriorating security situation has put Chinese-backed projects at risk.

Beijing appears to have concluded that the junta alone cannot protect Beijing's interests and has taken a more direct role, including establishing a joint security company to protect Chinese investments in Burma -- particularly along the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor -- and brokering ceasefire talks between the regime and armed ethnic groups.

On February 18, Burma passed the Private Security Service Law, allowing Chinese military personnel to operate in disguise as private security, according to The Irrawaddy.

For the first time, Chinese security personnel in June joined Burmese troops to guard an oil refinery near the Kyaukphyu port in Rakhine state.

Meanwhile, Beijing is pressuring the junta to hold elections later this year, in what observers call a bid to manufacture legitimacy.

However, this "fake election" risks igniting broader violence and may further destabilize border regions shared with Bangladesh, China, India, Laos and Thailand, they say.

China's role in Burma is evolving from that of a major investor to a regional power broker.

Through military engagement, economic influence and political pressure, Beijing is working to entrench its strategic position and expand its sway in this volatile neighbor.