By Focus | 2025-07-17

China's escalating military activities represent an "unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge" to Japan's security and the broader international order, according to Japan's newly released 2025 defense white paper.

The document, published July 15, cites the first confirmed incursion by a Chinese warplane into Japanese airspace, alongside a surge in regional military posturing by Beijing.

"China's aggressive military activities have the potential to create a serious impact on the security of our country," Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said during a press conference announcing the document.

The white paper highlights several key incidents underpinning Japan's concerns.

Most notably, it references an incursion last August by a Chinese military reconnaissance aircraft into Japanese airspace off Nagasaki prefecture -- marking the first confirmed violation of its kind.

The following month, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and two other vessels passed between Okinawa's Yonaguni and Iriomote islands.

Beyond these incidents, the document details a sustained pattern of heightened Chinese activity near Japanese territory.

In 2023 alone, Chinese coast guard vessels were spotted near the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu in China) for a record 355 days.

The paper voices concern over the Chinese coast guard's evolving role. As part of the People's Armed Police, the agency is becoming larger and more heavily armed, playing a more direct part in China's maritime strategy.

Taiwan concerns

Japan's concerns extend to the Taiwan Strait, where China has intensified military activity and conducted frequent exercises.

"China is attempting to normalize PLA [People's Liberation Army] activities around Taiwan and make them a fait accompli, while simultaneously working to improve its combat capabilities," it reads, while warning that the military balance across the Taiwan Strait is rapidly shifting in China's favor.

The report highlights Japan's growing alarm over Beijing's "gray zone" strategy -- military actions that fall short of open conflict but are designed to change the status quo.

It notes that "military deterrence and blockades are generally seen as China's main options toward Taiwan," and that in a potential blockade scenario, "the Chinese coast guard may be deployed at the forefront to conduct gray-zone operations."

The white paper links China's military pressure on Taiwan to broader political objectives, including efforts to isolate President Lai Ching-te's administration and deter deepening US-Taiwan security cooperation.

Meanwhile, China is accelerating activities and promoting militarization in the South China Sea based on claims deemed incompatible with international maritime law, according to the report.

"These are unilateral changes by force aimed at creating a fait accompli, which Japan views with serious concern," it said, highlighting that this issue is "a legitimate concern ... for the entire international community."

Defense expansion

The white paper further highlights Chinese-Russian joint military drills and notes that Russia's deployment of advanced weaponry in the Far East and repeated airspace incursions have reinforced strategic pressure on Japan.

The report highlights growing Russia-North Korea military ties and the possibility of missile-related technology transfers.

It warns that North Korea's posture poses an "even graver and more imminent threat" to Japan's national security, citing advancements in missile technology, including hypersonic systems.

In response to this deteriorating security environment, Japan is continuing its multiyear defense expansion.

The white paper documents investments in missile defense, unmanned systems, and the newly established Joint Operations Command to improve operational coordination.

It highlights efforts to modernize base infrastructure and personnel conditions.

Japan is deepening its alliance with the United States under the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" framework.

"Trends in the United States' security policies will have a significant impact on the security environment of the Indo-Pacific region," the document notes, highlighting recent summit- and ministerial-level dialogues and emphasizing the need to monitor developments closely.

While not a strategic road map, the white paper serves as Japan's annual assessment of its defense posture.

Warning that the international order is entering "a new era of crisis," it underscores the urgent need for Japan to fundamentally strengthen its defense capabilities and fortify cooperation not only with its allies but with a broader network of partners to meet mounting regional threats.