By Tai Lu | 2025-10-22

China's recent military exercises have shown how Beijing could encircle and strangle Taiwan by blocking its sea lanes, potentially cutting off the island's life-sustaining imports.

Taiwan currently relies on maritime shipments for 97% of its energy needs, and if completely cut off, its liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves could run out within 11 days, a severe blow to its power generation capacity, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on October 7.

Vulnerable to blockade

Most of Taiwan's energy transport depends on sea routes, Alexander Huang, an associate professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies of Tamkang University in New Taipei City, Taiwan, told Focus.

If shipowners or shipping companies are unwilling to risk supplying energy to Taiwan because of so-called isolation, quarantine measures or blockade, "we will indeed face a very serious problem," he said.

No matter how much LNG inventory Taiwan has, if China imposes a blockade on Taiwan, "it will have an impact on our public sentiment and prices in Taiwan, thereby achieving their goal," Chi Yue-yi, an assistant research fellow at the Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Focus.

The key is to prevent such a situation from happening in the first place, he said.

US senators Pete Ricketts and Chris Coons introduced legislation in September to help Taiwan secure a reliable supply of American LNG, including US insurance for shippers to keep deliveries flowing even under threat.

Ricketts said he co-sponsored the bill after joining a war game by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), which showed Taiwan running out of LNG within 11 days of a blockade.

"It really highlighted how this could be the Achilles' heel of Taiwan," Ricketts told the WSJ.

War games by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that while Taiwan could briefly sustain power, it would still need US intervention if a blockade persisted, the WSJ reported.

LNG supplies would last less than two weeks and coal about seven weeks, with electricity rationing likely to disrupt manufacturing, especially semiconductors critical to global supply chains, the studies found.

If Taiwan faces a blockade, it would have to seek foreign assistance, say analysts.

Become a hedgehog

Many foreign partners concerned about Taiwan's security have urged it to become a "hedgehog island" by pouring resources into defensive systems that make invasion costly, said Huang.

But the more Taiwan focuses on static defense, the less ability it has to project power or protect its sea lanes, he said.

"If you want Taiwan to be a hedgehog," he added, "then foreign countries must be Taiwan's 'Uber Eats.'" Taiwan's navy mainly has near-shore defense capabilities and lacks medium- and long-range escort capacity, meaning the navy would depend on outside support to keep supplies flowing.

If China blockades Taiwan or uses "unannounced inspections" as a pretext, international intervention would be both necessary and inevitable, since such actions could be seen as a prelude to war and would threaten key global shipping routes, said Chi.

International stake in Taiwan's semiconductors

Taiwan's semiconductor industry has a global impact, and developed countries in particular need these high-end semiconductors, so "there is every reason to intervene," said Chi.

Strong and sustained international cooperation itself serves as "the greatest strategic deterrent," reducing China's willingness to impose a blockade and risk global backlash, said Chi.

The Wall Street Journal reported that 30% of Taiwan's LNG currently comes from Qatar, which the FDD has identified as a potential pressure point, since China is a larger customer and could exert influence on Qatar.

Increasing Taiwan's US LNG imports from the current 10% level would help reduce China's influence over Taiwan's energy security, say analysts.

Taiwan's CPC Corporation has signed a letter of intent with Alaska this year to purchase millions of tons of LNG and possibly invest in local pipeline and liquefaction projects.

On this matter, diversifying supply risks while obtaining US protection would be a better strategy, said Chi.

Huang proposed a concisely worded policy: "Strengthen the military to maintain peace, to win without fighting."

"The best chance of victory lies in preventing war from breaking out. Once a war begins, the outcome will never be better than before it started," he said.