By Wu Qiaoxi | 2025-11-25

China has dragged the Taiwan dispute into a phone call with Washington and a missile standoff near the island, as its two-week row with Japan hardens into what diplomats call the worst Sino-Japanese crisis since mass anti-Japan protests in 2012.

China considers Taiwan a renegade province. It refuses to exclude using force to seize it, even though the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan.

The latest flare-up began in early November after new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in parliament that Tokyo could intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan, shedding the ambiguity past leaders used over how Japan would respond. Those remarks cross a "red line" and mark Japan's most direct challenge to its core interests in years, Beijing says.

China has taken the dispute to the United Nations (UN), where its ambassador, Fu Cong, accused Takaichi of committing "a grave violation of international law" in a letter to Secretary-General António Guterres.

Japan was threatening "an armed intervention" over Taiwan, the envoy said. Any such move would be an act of aggression that would trigger China's right of self-defense under the UN Charter, he warned.

Japan has sent its own letter. It defends Takaichi's comments as consistent with existing law and policy.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has sharpened the message in public. He accused Japan of sending "the wrong signal of attempting military intervention in the Taiwan issue " and said China must "resolutely respond."

Calling Washington

President Xi Jinping raised Taiwan again in a phone call with US President Donald Trump on November 24. Taiwan's return to Chinese control was an "integral part of the postwar international order" forged in the joint fight against "fascism and militarism," said Xi.

The island "is a fully sovereign state" and "there is no such option as return," Taiwan's Premier Cho Jung-tai retorted.

Trump later praised "extremely strong" US-Chinese ties in a social media post but did not mention Taiwan. Takaichi told reporters she also spoke with Trump about his call with Xi and about alliance issues.

Another island flashpoint

At the same time, a remote Japanese island close to Taiwan has become the latest flashpoint. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi on November 22 confirmed that plans to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni island were on track, saying the deployment "can reduce the possibility of an armed attack on Japan."

China's Foreign Ministry condemned the plan. It called it a "deliberate attempt to create regional tension and provoke military confrontation."

Yonaguni has hosted a Self-Defense Forces base since 2016, and Tokyo plans to deploy the Type 03 Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Guided Missile there to defend against incoming missiles and aircraft. Taiwan has welcomed the move, saying that strengthening Yonaguni "helps maintain security in the Taiwan Strait."

Japan on November 24 reported a suspected Chinese drone flight between Yonaguni and Taiwan, underscoring how the diplomatic row is bleeding into the military sphere.

An unmanned aerial vehicle believed to be Chinese passed through the area and regional air units scrambled jets in response, Tokyo's Defense Ministry said.

Chinese attempts to punish Japan

Beijing has been turning the screws economically and diplomatically as well. From blocked seafood imports to dire travel warnings, cancelled group tours, dropped Japan-bound flights and postponed ministerial and cultural meetings, Chinese actions have already squeezed tourism, film releases and other exchanges while Beijing rallies partners to restate the "one China" principle.

The tensions were visible at a recent Group of 20 summit in South Africa. Takaichi did not have a chance to speak with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and the two leaders stood near each other during the group photo session but showed no sign of interaction. After the summit, Takaichi said Japan's intention to build "mutually beneficial, constructive and stable ties remains unchanged" and that the country "is open to dialogue at various levels."

Analysts say the standoff recalls 2012, when Japan's nationalization of disputed islands triggered fierce anti-Japan protests and attacks on Japanese brands in Chinese cities. This time Beijing has so far kept street anger in check and relied instead on calibrated economic pressure and military signaling. With both capitals seen as locked in their positions, observers say that the risk is a longer freeze rather than a short-lived flare-up.

Takaichi's cabinet continues to enjoy strong public support, logging a 75.2% approval rating, according to a Sankei Shimbun/FNN poll conducted on November 22 and 23.

A total of 61% of respondents deem her recent remarks regarding a Taiwan contingency appropriate.