By Wu Qiaoxi | 2025-11-17

Japan and China are locked in one of their sharpest diplomatic clashes in years after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan could respond militarily to a Taiwan conflict.

Asked whether a "Taiwan contingency" involving a Chinese naval blockade would qualify as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, Takaichi said during testimony in the Lower House Budget Committee on November 7 that Chinese use of force around Taiwan could amount to "an existential threat."

Takaichi at a parliamentary session the same day warned that "the situation regarding Taiwan has become serious. We must assume the worst-case scenario," language that went further than previous Japanese leaders in spelling out possible military responses to a Taiwan crisis.

Under security legislation adopted in 2015, a "survival-threatening situation" allows Japan to exercise limited collective self-defense in support of a close ally even Japan is not directly attacked.

In response, Beijing on November 14 urged Chinese citizens to avoid travelling to Japan and warned students to reassess study plans, citing "safety risks" and rising anti-China sentiment after the political row.

Tokyo the next day lodged a formal protest over the move, urging China to take "appropriate measures" and help build stable bilateral ties.

Japanese tourism and retail shares plunged on November 17 after China's travel warning. Chinese tourists are Japan's biggest single source of foreign visitors and a key driver of retail and hospitality spending. Share prices continued to fall as Hong Kong and Macao also followed suit, issuing similar travel advisories.

Neo Wang, lead China macro analyst at Evercore ISI in New York, told Bloomberg that Beijing is again "leveraging Chinese tourists' spending" to raise the political cost of Takaichi's Taiwan stance.

Growing tensions

Beijing denounced Takaichi remarks as "grossly interfering in China's internal affairs" and summoned Japan's ambassador for a rare late-night protest.

Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong said the Taiwan issue "is a red line that must not be crossed," while Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian warned that anyone seeking to obstruct China's reunification would face a "head-on blow" and "failure."

The dispute escalated when Osaka-based Consul-General Xue Jian posted on X that "the intruding dirty neck" must be cut off "without a moment's hesitation" in remarks widely read in Japan as a threat against the prime minister.

The post was later deleted, but Tokyo summoned China's ambassador and condemned Xue's language as "extremely inappropriate." Lawmakers in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have urged the government to consider declaring him persona non grata if Beijing fails to rein him in.

Chinese state media also criticized Takaichi's remarks.

A CCTV-affiliated social media account said Takaichi would "have to pay the price" for her stance, while other commentaries warned that Japan would risk a "crushing" defeat if it intervened militarily over Taiwan and accused Tokyo of reviving wartime militarism.

The recent tensions are playing out against an already volatile regional backdrop.

On November 16, a Chinese coast guard formation spent hours inside waters around the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands, known in China as the Diaoyu, while Chinese forces continue frequent drills around Taiwan.

China claims all of Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to use force to bring it under its control. The island lies just over 100 km from Japan's southwestern islands and near sea lanes vital to Japanese energy imports and home to major US bases.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te condemned China's presence near the Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands as a "multifaceted attack" on Japan. He urged Beijing to show restraint and act as a responsible major power, not a "troublemaker."