By Wu Qiaoxi | 2026-03-18

Most Chinese citizens favor peaceful and nonmilitary approaches to improving ties with Taiwan, according to a recent survey. The findings indicate that the Chinese public above all values cultural ties and economic exchanges. They reflect a preference for "soft" power over military intervention.

The study also showed that while there is greater backing for limited coercive steps in case of a formal proclamation of Taiwanese independence, support for a full-scale military attack remains significantly lower than for other options.

China considers Taiwan its territory and has threatened repeatedly to seize it by force.

The Carter Center and Emory University (both based in Atlanta, Georgia) conducted the survey under the China Pulse project, a twice-annual study of Chinese public opinion on international affairs. It surveyed 2,506 Chinese adults between last October 27 and January 1, following a preliminary survey of 1,428 respondents conducted between last July 7 and August 15.

High support for nonmilitary options

When asked how to improve cross-strait relations, respondents expressed their strongest support for nonmilitary measures.

Beyond promoting cultural ties (86%) and better economic relations (81%), a 68% majority backed reducing restrictions on residency of Taiwanese businesspeople and students in mainland China. Additionally, 54% backed a negotiated peace agreement, while only about a quarter advocated unprovoked economic sanctions.

The report noted that the Chinese public's feelings toward Taiwan "warmed slightly in the latter half of 2025." On a 100-point feeling thermometer, Taiwan's average score rose from 57 in the July-August survey to 62 in the latest results. Notably, no demographic group in either survey recorded an overall negative rating.

Geopolitical strategy and technological competition were not the main reasons for Chinese respondents to consider Taiwan important. Instead, 80% of respondents said unification would resolve a "long-standing historical issue," and 71% said it would reflect a shared cultural heritage. By comparison, fewer than half (45%) cited Taiwan's semiconductor industry as important in Taiwan's value to the mainland.

Still, the survey did not point to a clearly pacifist public.

In the latest survey, 38% agreed that Taiwan should not be unified by military force "under any circumstances," while 47% disagreed. This finding represents a shift from the July-August 2025 survey, where a small majority (51%) held that dovish position. The report concludes that the results show no clear commitment to either pacifism or militarism.

Views turned markedly more hawkish in a hypothetical scenario where Taiwan declares de jure independence. In that case, the public favored limited attacks on offshore islands (81%) over a full-scale military attack (32%). Economic sanctions drew majority backing at 62%.

Opposed to war

However, the report pointed to a clear limit on support for war. Twice as many respondents agreed (50%) as disagreed (24%) that "the use of military force only makes the Taiwan issue worse." This sentiment helps explain why support remains stronger for pressure short of invasion than for all-out war across the Taiwan Strait.

Demographic patterns suggested greater caution among specific groups. Women were likelier than men to oppose unification by force, with 40% of women agreeing that Taiwan should not be unified by military force under any circumstances, compared with 36% of men. Lower-income respondents were more supportive of an exclusively peaceful approach; among the lowest earners, 54% agreed with that position, compared with about a quarter of the highest earners.

The survey situated the Taiwan issue within a broader security context. Among Chinese respondents who see the United States as a national security threat, 83% ranked the Taiwan issue as the largest danger, ahead of US economic policy (80%), the influence of US cultural values (46%) and issues of democracy and human rights (31%). The total percentage exceeded 100% because respondents could pick multiple issues.

Overall, the findings suggest that while many Chinese remain committed to unification in principle, they overwhelmingly favor cultural, economic and negotiated approaches over major conflict.