By Cheng Chung-lan | 2025-06-18

As tensions continue to rise in the Taiwan Strait, Japanese media have unveiled two satellite images from inside China that offer a rare glimpse into Beijing's strategic planning for invading Taiwan.

In late May, NTV News produced a special series exploring the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, including Beijing's potential tactics and the broader implications for Japan.

The report included satellite evidence, expert commentary and field investigations that raised alarm over how an actual conflict might unfold.

The satellite imagery, captured by Google in April 2024, showed a concerning buildup.

Notably, it revealed that China has constructed a nearly identical replica of Taipei's Presidential Office District -- known as the Bo'ai Special Zone -- in the Alxa Desert of Inner Mongolia. A comparison with Taipei's urban layout shows striking similarities in street grids, road layouts and surrounding buildings.

To verify the replica's accuracy, NTV journalists walked through Taipei, starting from Liberty Square, about 0.8km from the Presidential Office.

They passed local landmarks such as kindergartens, breakfast shops and tourist sites before arriving at the core zone, which houses the Presidential Office, Foreign Ministry, Judicial Yuan and other key government buildings, all aligned in a row.

The report found that the actual street in Taipei measured 973 meters, while the replica measured 971 meters -- a difference of two meters.

The full-scale physical model was apparently built not only to train troops but to rehearse real-world urban combat scenarios down to the smallest detail.

"This facility is designed to help soldiers familiarize themselves with the road layout around the Presidential Office," said Chung Chih-tung, a researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, in the report.

"The goal is to quickly seize the Presidential Office and paralyze the central government."

Spanning 250,000 square meters, Liberty Square is the only open space in central Taipei large enough to deploy airborne troops, which makes it an ideal target for a rapid strike.

Chinese paratroopers could descend on the plaza and advance along the main avenues toward the Presidential Office, launching a decapitation strike and capturing the president, said Chung.

This planning suggests that Beijing might favor a "shock-and-paralyze" blitz strategy -- seize the capital's command center first, then force negotiations for a takeover.

"The Presidential Office is China's top priority in an attack," Chung said, emphasizing that the satellite images further validate this long-held assessment.

'Gray zone' militia

This is not the first time China has simulated attacks on Taipei. A decade ago, Chinese military exercises already featured buildings resembling the Presidential Office.

However, the recent reconstruction of entire street blocks signals a greater emphasis on realism and detailed combat planning.

Beyond land-based simulations, the report examined China's maritime deployments along its southeastern coast.

The second satellite image captured a large fleet of fishing boats off Shangchuan Island in Guangdong province, which may be serving as a forward base for China's maritime militia.

During a field investigation, NTV reporters observed local ports crowded with various fishing boats, several fitted with industrial-grade water cannons similar to those used by coast guard vessels. Such equipment is rare on regular fishing boats and is typically found on paramilitary or naval vessels.

These boats, although nominally fishing vessels, serve as "militia ships," local fishermen revealed.

These ships are part of China's maritime militia -- state-funded, with crews trained and directed by national defense authorities. Disguised as civilian vessels, they can conduct surveillance as well as offensive operations.

"In the early stages of a Taiwan operation, China may deploy maritime militia under the guise of 'civilian activity' to interfere with Taiwan's defenses," said Bonji Ohara, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, in the report.

This tactic exploits legal ambiguity, operating in a "gray zone" that deliberately blurs the line between military action and civilian action to avoid providing the United States with a clear legal justification for intervention, Ohara added.

"China can claim this is not an operation by the Communist Party or the central government," Ohara explained. "If it's not a military attack, then the United States has no grounds to send troops."

By using such ambiguous methods, China could effectively launch offensive actions without formally declaring war, gaining time and initiative, maintaining international deniability and minimizing the risk of collective retaliation.

National security

From a mock capital in the desert to disguised militia vessels along its coast, China's Taiwan strategy appears to follow a dual-track path: a conventional blitz targeting Taipei's political core, and covert gray-zone operations meant to infiltrate, provoke and destabilize.

In Japan, "a Taiwan contingency" is no longer seen as a distant regional issue but a pressing national concern.

Analysts warn of disruptions to energy imports, lawmakers call for ampler resource stockpiles and evacuation plans are already being drafted for tens of thousands in Okinawa.

Across government, media and civil society, recognition is growing that what happens in Taiwan could directly impact Japan's economy, security and way of life.