By Shirin Bhandari | 2025-08-26

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s recent remarks that the Philippines "cannot stay out" if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait have drawn sharp protests from Beijing and gratitude from Taipei. They sparked fresh debate over Manila's role in regional security.

In an interview with Indian outlet Firstpost during his state visit to New Delhi in early August, Marcos warned that geography alone dictates Manila's vulnerability to any conflict over Taiwan. "If there is a confrontation over Taiwan between China and the United States, there is no way that the Philippines can stay out of it, simply because of our physical geographic location," he said.

Only 40 minutes away by air

Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan is only a 40-minute flight from Laoag in norgthern Luzon, he said. "If there is an all-out war, we will be drawn into it. ... We will have to go in there or find a way to go in there and to bring our people home," Marcos added, citing the more than 160,000 Filipinos living and working in Taiwan.

When asked if he would allow the United States to use Philippine bases in case of a Taiwan conflict, Marcos replied that Manila must work with allies. "Why should we turn down our partners?" he said.

Manila is acting in its own interests, not at Washington's behest, he said. "Why should we turn down partners who face the Chinese threat? We are not acting as a puppet state. It is our duty to defend our country," he said.

Opposing reactions from Beijing and Taipei

China swiftly condemned Marcos' remarks. "We urge the Philippines to earnestly adhere to the one-China principle … and refrain from playing with fire on issues bearing on China's core interests," a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on August 8.

In response to Beijing, Marcos reiterated that Manila does not seek conflict. At a news briefing in Manila, he said, "I don't know what they are talking about. Playing with fire? I was just stating the facts."

The Philippines must prepare for any contingency, especially regarding evacuation plans for overseas workers and the defense of Philippine territory, he said.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry warmly welcomed Marcos' comments, describing them as a recognition of the broader regional stakes in the Taiwan Strait. Both countries seek peace and stability, said Taipei, which thanked Manila for "reaffirming the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

A clarifying stance by Manila

Marcos' words reflect a wider Philippine shift toward strategic clarity, say analysts.

A Taiwan Strait conflict would make it difficult for the Philippines to remain uninvolved, former Philippine representative to Taiwan Angelito Banayo told Taiwan's Central News Agency.

Under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, the United States has established three military bases in the northern Philippines, all positioned with Taiwan and China in mind, he said.

If war breaks out, said Banayo, these bases would likely become targets of Chinese strikes.

Those bases would be "critical nodes" for US operations in a Taiwan contingency, placing Manila on the front line of any conflict, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a 2024 report.

No opting out

This assessment aligns with Marcos' acknowledgment that the Philippines cannot simply opt out and may have to grant the United States access to defend Philippine security.

Marcos' remarks underscore the Philippines' centrality in the Taiwan Strait equation.

With US defense access to northern bases and its geographic proximity, Manila would be exposed in any cross-strait conflict.

As tensions keep rising in both the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, Marcos has positioned the Philippines as an increasingly vocal actor in shaping regional security debates. "What will happen is, we will continue to be present, we will continue to defend our territory, we will continue to exercise our sovereign rights," he said in August, after another maritime run-in with Chinese vessels near the disputed Scarborough Shoal.