By Jia Feimao | 2025-12-29

A new US document on strategy shows the prominence of Taiwan in the Pentagon's thinking.

The Trump administration's 2025 US National Security Strategy (NSS), released on December 5, puts deterrence in the Taiwan Strait at the center of its Indo-Pacific approach, saying preventing a conflict over Taiwan is a priority and that preserving US military "overmatch" is key.

The document takes a tougher tone on Taiwan than did the version issued during President Donald Trump's first term, say analysts. They point to eight mentions of Taiwan and the prominence it gives the Taiwan Strait in the region's security picture.

China considers Taiwan its territory and has never ruled out seizing it by force.

Deterrence through strength

The strategy is this administration's first since taking office in January. It calls for "deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch."

The report explains Taiwan's importance in both economic and geopolitical terms, pointing to the island's dominant role in semiconductor manufacturing. It also says Taiwan offers direct access to the second island chain and separates Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia into two distinct theaters, arguing that "there is, rightly, much focus on Taiwan."

The second island chain extends from Japan to the island of New Guinea and includes the US territory Guam.

In contrast, the 2017 NSS released during Trump's first term mentioned Taiwan three times in a single sentence.

As for implementation, the strategy calls for "reinforcing US and allies' capacity to deny any attempt to seize Taiwan," and to prevent any developments that would "make defending that island (Taiwan) impossible."

Taiwan's placement in the "Deterring Military Threats" section signals a shift in how US policymakers frame the issue, Yaqi Li, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (Singapore), wrote in Modern Diplomacy.

"Taiwan is not presented as a normative issue adjacent to China policy; it is presented as a mechanism for preventing a military outcome that would upend US economic interests and regional posture."

The strategy uses unusually explicit geopolitical language to redefine Taiwan as a "geopolitical hub" in the first island chain, Tang Ming-hua, an associate research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, wrote on December 9 for his institute.

The first island chain includes Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

Calling on Taiwan to do more

Taiwan's role has shifted from a protected entity to a link in the Indo-Pacific deterrence system, said Tang. "Taiwan's value lies not only in defending itself but also in whether it can form one of the 'defense lines' within the first island chain sufficient to deter China's strategic breakthroughs." That elevation of status, he added, means Taiwan must take on greater responsibility for maintaining the regional balance.

The United States "will build a military capable of denying aggression anywhere in the First Island Chain. But the American military cannot, and should not have to, do this alone. Our allies must step up and spend -- and more importantly do -- much more for collective defense," the White House wrote in the NSS.

Taiwan will continue to be a reliable partner and remain committed to strengthening its self-defense to uphold regional peace, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te tweeted December 5.

Taiwanese defense spending

Lai announced a $40 billion defense plan in November, focused on purchasing new US weapons and expanding Taiwan's asymmetric warfare capabilities to deter potential Chinese aggression against the island.

Taiwan's defense spending aligns with the NSS's expectations for allies, William Chih-tung Chung, another scholar at the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, wrote December 8.

"Taiwan should not merely act as a passive recipient of security assistance, and should instead take on an active role as a security provider to meet the requirements laid out in Trump's National Security Strategy," he wrote in a post for his institute.

Deterring China's use of force against Taiwan has become pivotal to US Indo-Pacific planning, he said, adding that Taiwan's shift from "hitchhiking" to "sharing responsibilities" is key to maintaining a strategic interest-based link with the United States.

Chung's colleague Tang cited ways for Taiwan to assume more security responsibilities. They include sustained increases in defense spending, reforms to its reservist system and faster mass production of missiles and unmanned combat systems.

Taiwan should expand its all-of-society defense mobilization system and strengthen the resilience of critical infrastructure in high-intensity conflict scenarios, he advised.