By Jia Feimao | 2026-01-06

The newly elected president of Honduras has voiced support for restoring diplomatic relations with Taiwan, while Taipei has signaled willingness to rebuild ties. The switch, if accomplished, raises the prospect of renewed rivalry between Taiwan and China.

Vote counting in Honduras' presidential election concluded in late December, with pro-Taiwan National Party candidate Nasry Asfura winning the race. He had said ahead of the vote that he would seek to re-recognize Taiwan diplomatically at China's expense if elected.

In a Bloomberg News interview last July, the 67-year-old veteran politician said Honduras was "100 times better off" when it had full ties with Taiwan. As he did later in the campaign, he pledged to reinstate diplomatic relations with Taipei and pursue closer ties with the United States.

Honduras recognized China and broke ties with Taiwan in 2023.

Diplomatic pivot

If Asfura keeps his campaign promises, "China would face a rare diplomatic reversal with implications far beyond Honduras," Alonso Illueca, a non-resident fellow at the independent China Global South Project, wrote in December.

A shift by Honduras could prompt other Central American countries to reconsider their relationships with Taiwan and China, he said. He cited Panama and Costa Rica as examples, noting that debate is already under way and could further shape diplomatic trends across the region.

In 2023, Honduran President Xiomara Castro severed ties with Taiwan. Joseph Wu, then Taiwan's foreign minister, accused the Castro administration of requesting as much as $2.45 billion in aid from Taiwan while "comparing prices" with assistance offered by China.

Beijing pressure

Since Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for its tougher stance toward Beijing, regained the presidency in 2016, China has continued trying to lure away Taiwan's allies with promises of economic benefits.

"Some of these countries, having not received the financial aid promised by Beijing, have come back to us to explore the possibility of resuming diplomatic relations, but we cannot accept that," a Taipei-based foreign affairs source told Focus.

Throughout the long-running diplomatic rivalry between Taipei and Beijing, neither side has accepted dual recognition by a foreign capital. Some countries have repeatedly shifted allegiance. The Pacific island nation of Nauru established and severed relations with Taiwan twice, and in 2024 recognized China for the second time.

The last country to establish diplomatic ties with Taiwan was the Caribbean nation of Saint Lucia in 2007.

Evolving approaches in Taipei

Preserving its dwindling number of diplomatic allies has occupied Taiwan's attention for decades.

Ma Ying-jeou, a member of the DPP's main rival, the Kuomintang party, observed a diplomatic truce with Beijing during his 2008-2016 presidency. Tsai Ing-wen, a DPP member and president from 2016-2024, advocated a cautious and "non-provocative" approach.

Tsai sought not to compete with Beijing over the number of diplomatic allies but rather to avoid unnecessary provocation and to focus on solidifying ties with like-minded partners, the foreign affairs source in Taipei said.

President Lai Ching-te, however, appears to have more expansive ambitions.

Efforts by Lai to restore full ties with Honduras would likely prompt Chinese retaliation, Huang Kwei-Bo, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei, told Focus.

China would seek to counterbalance any such setback by targeting Taiwan's remaining 12 diplomatic allies, he said. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines appears the likeliest target in the Caribbean, he added.

In an interview with Taiwanese media last October, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said, "Some countries genuinely want to establish substantive diplomatic relations with Taiwan. If the two sides agree, then establishing diplomatic ties is possible."

Commenting to Liberty Times in December, Lin expressed hope that backers like the United States can assist in reviving full relations between Taiwan and Honduras.

Economic costs

Asfura soon will face a strategic choice between recognizing Beijing or Taipei that is expected to shape Honduras' relations with both the United States and China, Honduran outlet Centroamérica360 reported.

Honduras lost tangible benefits after severing ties with Taiwan, including technical assistance, training programs and preferential market access, particularly in agriculture and aquaculture, former agriculture minister Germán Pérez told La Prensa de Honduras in January.

China has not provided equivalent compensation, he added. Pérez cited central bank data showing imports from China rising while exports remained limited after the diplomatic switch.