By Chen Weichen | 2026-02-04

Japan's newly formed main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) has put China policy at the center of its foreign and security platform, pledging "a firm response to concerns over China."

The move puts it closer to its foe, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), on a major issue.

On January 19, the CRA, formed by Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), and Komeito, unveiled its broader foreign-policy direction as Japan's parties sharpen their messaging ahead of the February 8 snap election. Security and diplomacy are rising as issues alongside debates over the consumption tax and fiscal reform.

The tougher messaging follows a fresh downturn in Sino-Japanese ties that began last November, when Takaichi told parliament a Taiwan contingency could prompt Japanese military intervention.

Beijing retaliated. In early January, it tightened controls on exports to Japan of goods with potential military applications, including rare earths.

The policy, decried as "economic coercion," did not erode public support for Takaichi's government.

Promising signs for Takaichi

Seeking a fresh mandate, Takaichi dissolved the lower house to trigger the upcoming vote. Early indicators suggest the move may pay off; a Nikkei poll published January 29 showed her LDP was on track to win a majority of the 465 seats.

Before Takaichi called the snap election, the LDP held 198 seats; after forming a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, it held only a slim majority in the lower house and remained a minority in the upper house.

China has closely watched the campaign and intensified efforts to shape public opinion about Takaichi, according to reporting cited by Reuters.

An outright majority for the LDP "would signal to Beijing that she will likely remain as prime minister for a few years and China's pressure campaign against her has backfired," Jeremy Chan, an analyst at Eurasia Group. Conversely, if the victory is narrow, Beijing could step up coercive pressure, Chan said.

A decisive victory could further strengthen Takaichi's hand on diplomacy and foreign policy, other observers said. "If she wins big, she will be even less likely to retreat," Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, told the South China Morning Post.

The the CRA's stance has reduced the opposition's room to maneuver on China. In its list of basic policies, the alliance underscored "realistic foreign and defense policies and deepening discussions on constitutional revision [which would give the Japanese military more freedom to act]."

Clashes and misgivings

Meanwhile, Sino-Japanese friction is continuing at sea. The Japanese coast guard reported that on February 1, two 5,000-ton-class Chinese coast guard vessels operated simultaneously in the contiguous zone around the disputed Senkaku Islands, an occurrence officials described as extremely rare. Japan controls the islands, but China claims them too.

Public anxiety remains high. A January Reuters poll found that more than two-thirds of Japanese companies expect frayed ties with Beijing to weigh on the economy. Similarly, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed that 60% of voters are concerned about economic fallout from the discord, an increase from 53% in December.

Beijing's folly

But voter anxieties aside, Beijing has miscalculated, say analysts. Its aggressive economic curbs forced the Japanese opposition to purge any language from its platforms that sounded "too soft on China" or like "a concession to China," Nikkei editorial writer Katsuji Nakazawa wrote January 22.

"China's initial thinking was probably to try to bring down the Takaichi government," former Vice Defense Minister Kazuhisa Shimada told Reuters.

Instead, as Nakazawa observed, many Japanese considered the pressure "unreasonable," effectively lifting Takaichi's approval ratings and emboldening her to seek a stronger mandate.

As the February 8 vote nears, this dynamic has transformed a once-divisive foreign policy issue into a unifying theme.