By Ha Er-rui | 2026-02-05

China recently has stepped up operations in waters and airspace around its periphery. In addition to upgrading conventional combat capabilities, Beijing has tested mobilization and coordination by integrating civilian resources into state-linked operations. The shift has raised concerns over regional security and stability.

China repeatedly has threatened to seize the democratically ruled island of Taiwan.

On January 16, The New York Times disclosed an analysis of ship-tracking data indicating that since December 25, China had twice conducted large-scale assemblies of fishing boats in the East China Sea. The vessels repeatedly abandoned patterns typical of fishing and instead operated in highly synchronized formations. The moves could be linked to maritime militia drills, said analysts.

On December 25, about 2,000 Chinese fishing boats assembled in two parallel lines in the East China Sea. They formed a reverse L shape, with each line stretching about 290 miles, the report said.

It said that on January 11, another 1,400 fishing boats assembled into a rectangle extending more than 200 miles. Ship-tracking data showed the density of the formation prompted some international shipping companies to adjust their routes.

Clogging sea lanes

The unusual formations were first spotted by Jason Wang, chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a data analysis firm. In conflicts or crises, China could mobilize large numbers of civilian vessels to clog sea lanes, complicating opponents' military operations and supply lines, he said.

The boats were "almost certainly not fishing, and I can't think of any explanation that isn't state-directed," Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said.

The report cited Poling's view that the mobilizations may have been rehearsals for large-scale musters in a future contingency, or support for maritime operations such as a "quarantine" or blockade intended to maximize pressure on Taiwan.

The masses of the smaller boats could act "as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming radars or drone sensors with too many targets," said Thomas Shugart, a former US naval officer and now a research fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Fishing boats alone are unlikely to form an effective blockade, but they could obstruct foreign warships and merchant ships.

Mobilizing civilian vessels for war

The two large-scale assemblies within a short period suggested the Chinese military was possibly verifying its ability to mobilize and organize civilian vessels and testing the feasibility of incorporating civilian vessels into combat resources, Taiwanese Lt. Gen. (ret.) Chang Yen-ting told CTi News in an interview. The large number of vessels could deplete an opponent's antiship firepower, increasing response costs, he said.

As for China's choice to conduct the mobilization exercises during winter, Chang suggested that China timed them to coincide with fewer typhoons and smaller fishing catches. The circumstances make it easier to mobilize fishermen and arrange exercises.

If the ship-tracking data are accurate, the assemblies were "not only an effective large-scale mobilization and assembly of fishing boats, but also a concrete indicator of the maturity of the command and control system for 'maritime militia vessels,'" Lin Chau-luen, an associate research fellow at the institute, said in a commentary published by Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

If tensions escalate in the East China Sea, the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, such employment "may significantly compress the reaction time and response capabilities for the command and control of commanders at all levels," said Lin.

In the face of such nonstandard threats, Lin said it was essential to remain calm and evidence oriented and to avoid overinterpreting the situation. "What we need is not a panic reaction, but rather more substantial effort to verify and analyze data (such as satellite images) in … to make the right decision," he said.