By AFP and Focus | 2026-06-09

GENEVA -- China expanded its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country over the past year, while nuclear-armed states increasingly moved warheads from storage to operational deployment, raising global nuclear risks despite a continued decline in overall stockpiles, researchers said.

The world's nuclear powers possessed an estimated 12,187 warheads as of January, including about 9,745 held in military stockpiles for potential use, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a report released on June 8.

That was a marginal decrease compared to the year before, as since the end of the Cold War old warheads have generally been dismantled more quickly than new ones have been deployed, resulting in a decrease in the overall number.

"The more worrying news is that even though we have lower numbers of nuclear weapons, the level of nuclear dangers and nuclear risks [is] rising," SIPRI Director Karim Haggag told AFP.

The trend of declining nuclear stockpiles was likely to be reversed in the coming years "as the pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating," SIPRI said in a statement.

Other warning signs included the erosion of international arms control agreements and intensifying competition among nuclear-armed powers, Haggag said.

China's rapid expansion

China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country, according to SIPRI.

Beijing's stockpile grew from around 600 warheads in January 2025 to about 620 a year later and was expected to keep expanding over the coming decade, the institute estimated.

Most of China's warheads are stored separately from their launchers, but Beijing may have begun deploying a small number with operational forces, perhaps up to 34 as of January, SIPRI said.

By January, China had loaded hundreds of missiles into three large silo fields in its north and was completing 30 more silos across three mountainous areas in the east, SIPRI said. It already had more land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers than either Russia or the United States and, depending on how it structures its forces, could field at least as many ICBMs as either country by the turn of the decade.

"Intensifying geopolitical competition means a very strong incentive on the part of China to increase its reliance on nuclear weapons," Haggag said.

However, SIPRI noted that even if China surpasses 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, its arsenal would still amount to only about one-quarter of the current U.S. and Russian stockpiles.

China was the world's second-largest spender on nuclear weapons in 2025 at an estimated $13.5 billion, trailing only the United States at $69.2 billion, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

The group reported that collective spending by the nine nuclear-armed states surged 19% year over year to a record $119 billion.

More warheads deployed

Another worrying trend is one "whereby states that have nuclear weapons are taking them out of storage and deploying them on nuclear-capable delivery systems. And so we see more deployed nuclear weapons," Haggag said.

The United States and Russia together hold about 83% of the world's nuclear weapons, with each maintaining stockpiles of more than 5,000 warheads.

Both countries are pursuing modernization programs for their nuclear forces, though each has encountered challenges.

The United States' program continues to advance but has faced "planning and funding challenges that are likely to further delay and significantly increase the cost of the program," SIPRI said.

Russia's program has encountered its own setbacks, including failed tests of ICBMs. Economic sanctions and competing demands stemming from the war in Ukraine appear to have affected progress.

Modernization continues

In Europe, France and the United Kingdom maintained nuclear stockpiles of about 290 and 225 warheads, respectively.

However, SIPRI noted that Britain's arsenal is expected to grow after a 2021 review recommended raising the country's nuclear warhead ceiling.

French President Emmanuel Macron ordered an increase in France's nuclear stockpile in March.

India slightly expanded its arsenal to about 190 warheads, SIPRI estimated.

India's neighbor and rival Pakistan maintained an estimated 170 warheads but continued accumulating fissile material, "suggesting that its nuclear arsenal might expand over the coming decade."

North Korea is continuing to "fulfil its stated goal of 'exponentially' expanding its nuclear arsenal," SIPRI said, estimating that Pyongyang possesses about 60 warheads.

Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is believed to be modernizing its arsenal, with SIPRI estimating its stockpile at about 90 warheads at the beginning of 2026.