By Zarak Khan | 2026-07-09

A leading U.S. think tank has called for the United States and its key Indo-Pacific allies to establish a four-country deterrence framework. China's rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal and military capabilities are reshaping the region's strategic balance, it says.

The recommendation appears in a June report by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), "Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific in an Era of Great-Power Competition." China's accelerating military modernization has narrowed the long-standing advantage enjoyed by the United States and its allies and ushered in a period of heightened strategic uncertainty, it says.

The report proposes establishing a Quadrilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue involving the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia to institutionalize coordination, improve intelligence sharing and strengthen conventional and nuclear deterrence planning against emerging regional threats.

The proposal comes as China keeps building up its nuclear forces and projecting military power farther from its shores, prompting more debate over how U.S. allies should strengthen collective deterrence under Washington's security umbrella.

Nuclear expansion

The report identifies China's "ongoing nuclear expansion and modernization efforts" as one of the most significant strategic challenges facing the United States and its allies.

It points to Beijing's construction of hundreds of new missile silos and its progress toward a fully operational nuclear triad of land-, sea- and air-based delivery systems as evidence of a rapidly evolving nuclear posture.

Citing U.S. Department of Defense estimates, the report says China's nuclear arsenal could reach about 1,500 warheads by 2035, representing one of the fastest buildups by any major nuclear power in recent decades.

The combination of new missile silos, improved delivery systems and advances in command-and-control capabilities suggests Beijing is seeking a more flexible and viable nuclear posture capable of supporting broader strategic objectives, the NBR says.

The assessment broadly aligns with findings by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which reported in June that China's nuclear stockpile increased from about 600 warheads in January 2025 to roughly 620 a year later, with more warheads expected throughout the coming decade.

The NBR highlights "Beijing's shift toward a launch-on-warning posture, accompanied by the abandonment of its minimal deterrence posture and weakening of its long-standing no-first-use policy."

Such a posture would allow China to launch nuclear weapons upon detecting an incoming attack rather than waiting to confirm a strike. That ability would potentially shorten decision times during a crisis and increase escalation risks.

Military reach

Beyond nuclear weapons, the report raises concerns about China's burgeoning conventional military and technological capabilities.

Citing the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 assessment, the NBR says Beijing has pursued dual use biological research with both civilian and potential military applications, and has "reportedly weaponized ricin, botulinum toxins, and the causative agents of anthrax, cholera, plague, and tularemia."

China's swelling military capabilities are no longer confined to its immediate neighborhood, the report says.

It cites the People's Liberation Army Navy's unannounced live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea in February 2025 and naval operations around Australia as evidence of Beijing's growing ability to project military power farther into the Pacific and challenge the operational environment of U.S. allies.

Deterrence dialogue

The NBR says China's military modernization, combined with North Korea's continuing nuclear and missile development and Russia's flourishing strategic cooperation with Beijing, is reshaping security calculations across the Indo-Pacific.

The changing threat environment has intensified debate in Japan, South Korea and Australia over strengthening long-term deterrence arrangements under the U.S. security umbrella, it says.

To address the evolving security environment, the report proposes a recurring Track 1 Quadrilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue involving the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

The forum would allow the four countries to coordinate threat assessments, improve information sharing and discuss allied military capabilities while complementing existing bilateral deterrence mechanisms.

"Such a dialogue should augment rather than supplant each country's bilateral discussions with the United States," the report says. The primary focus should be on sharing information about external threats and allied capabilities, it adds.

More-sensitive operational planning should continue through existing bilateral mechanisms, including the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group, the U.S.-Japan Extended Deterrence Dialogue and the U.S.-Australia Strategic Policy Dialogue, it says.

A similar recommendation appeared in a 2025 report by the United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney and South Korea's Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

"In an increasingly contested environment, extended nuclear deterrence is an essential piece of any national security puzzle in the region," said Prof. Peter Dean, director of foreign policy and defense at the United States Studies Center.

"However, Australia, Korea, Japan, and the United States have an asymmetry between our capabilities and interoperability, so a crawl-walk-run approach is essential to build meaningful collective security," he added.