By Hua Ziliang | 2025-04-08

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is mainly concerned with safeguarding the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s rule rather than with prioritizing military conflict, even as it conducts multiple exercises in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific, according to a recent report by RAND Corporation.

The report titled "Political Legitimacy and the People's Liberation Army" was published in late January by the US think tank.

It examines China's evolving political legitimacy since 1949, from Chinese leader Mao Zedong's revolutionary charisma to Deng Xiaoping's economic prosperity model, and now Xi Jinping's national populism.

Xi's reliance on national populism has strengthened the PLA's role in demonstrating national power through military modernization, the authors noted.

However, the PLA remains "averse to significant escalation that could result in mass casualties," as such losses could undermine the CCP's legitimacy.

The report outlines four possible future scenarios, three of which -- Rejuvenated China, Radicalized China and Fortress China -- carry significant implications for Taiwan and regional security.

In the Rejuvenated China scenario, the CCP overcomes economic challenges and strengthens its economy, which makes the PLA more capable of confronting the US military.

Beijing may take greater risks, including military action against Taiwan, but would likely opt for a blockade or the seizure of offshore islands rather than for a full-scale invasion.

If internal political turmoil arises in the Radicalized China scenario, the CCP might resort to extreme nationalism to deflect domestic tensions, increasing the likelihood of risky actions such as blockades of or air strikes on Taiwan. However, such moves could escalate into an unsustainable conflict.

On the other hand, if economic decline and governance failures push China into a defensive stance described by the Fortress China scenario, the PLA would prioritize domestic stability over external conflicts. Even in this case, Beijing could still exert pressure on Taiwan through cyberattacks and economic coercion.

Military action

Even though the RAND report suggests China is unlikely to launch a large-scale war against Taiwan in the short term, China has accelerated its military buildup to "be prepared to seize Taiwan by 2027," US Strategic Command Commander Gen. Anthony J. Cotton warned at a March defense conference.

China has set military readiness targets for 2027 and 2030, aligning with its broader military development goals, Chieh Chung, a research fellow at the Association of Strategic Foresight in Taiwan, told the Epoch Times in February.

Xi has tied the CCP's long-term objective of China's "great rejuvenation" by 2049 to "cross-strait reunification." If peaceful reunification appears unlikely to achieve, military action could become a viable option, Chieh explained.

The CCP's willingness to engage in large-scale military conflict depends on the strength of its political legitimacy, RAND said.

A stable and strong China might take calculated military risks, while internal instability could drive the CCP to mobilize nationalism, leading to more-aggressive actions.

To navigate these potential threats, Taiwan should enhance its defense capabilities, closely monitor China's internal dynamics and strengthen partnerships with international allies to maintain regional stability and deter military escalation, RAND suggested.