By Li Hsianchi | 2025-05-19

Taiwan's diplomatic community is closely watching the future trajectory of Taiwan-Vatican relations following the election of Robert Prevost as the 267th pope of the Catholic Church.

Prevost on May 8 became the first American to fill the role of pope, taking the name Leo XIV.

The Vatican stands as one of only 12 states globally that officially recognize Taiwan and is Taiwan's sole diplomatic ally in Europe.

China views self-ruling Taiwan as part of its territory and has sought to isolate the nation internationally.

As Taiwan faces increasing geopolitical isolation under pressure from China, both Taipei and international observers are watching closely to see whether the Holy See under Pope Leo XIV can maintain official ties with Taiwan.

Taiwan's former ambassador to the Holy See, Lee Shih-ming, pointed out to the Central News Agency on May 9 that when Prevost became cardinal in 2023, he thanked Taiwan for its congratulations and showed a clear grasp of the distinction between democratic Taiwan and communist China.

Lee expressed optimism that relations would deepen under the new pope.

For its part, China on May 9 congratulated the newly elected pope and said it hoped to continue "constructive dialogue" with the Vatican.

Balancing act

Following Pope Francis's death, Taiwan had initially hoped that President Lai Ching-te would attend the funeral, in keeping with precedent.

However, after negotiations with the Vatican, the Foreign Ministry announced former vice president Chen Chien-jen, a Catholic and Papal Knight, would represent Taiwan.

While Chen was a fitting envoy, the change broke with past custom and drew concerns that the Vatican may be concerned about angering China.

Taiwan is considered a significant partner for the Vatican. In an interview with The Guardian on May 1, Chen stated that although Taiwan's 300,000 Catholics constitute a mere 0.02% of the global Catholic population, Taiwan has served as a "bridging church."

In times of more stabler cross-strait relations, clergy from China would discreetly travel to Taiwan to receive theological training in Mandarin.

While Taiwan promptly offered its condolences after Pope Francis's passing, China delayed its response and commented only via a daily Foreign Ministry news conference, reiterating that Taiwan is an "inalienable part" of China.

China has about 12 million Catholics.

On the day of the funeral, more than 160 countries, including Taiwan, sent leaders or special envoys. China's notable absence fueled speculation that its absence was linked to the Vatican's refusal to block Taiwan's attendance.

China pressured the Vatican to deny Taiwan's official participation in the funeral, Michel Chambon, a French theologian and National University of Singapore researcher, wrote in UCA News on April 28.

When the Holy See refused, Beijing retaliated by skipping the event.

"When China delivers something like a slap to Pope Francis as he rests peacefully in his coffin, it is ... a slap to the rest of the world," Chambon wrote.

Fraught relations

Relations between the Holy See and China have been fraught since 1951, when Beijing severed ties with the Vatican and created the state-controlled Patriotic Catholic Association. The act forced Catholics to reject papal authority or practice underground.

In 2018, the Vatican and China signed a provisional agreement on bishop appointments, which was then renewed in 2020, but the deal’s contents remain secret, sparking criticism that it compromises the Church’s integrity.

The Vatican's ongoing attempts to balance ties with Beijing continue to raise concerns in Taiwan.

Chambon told The Guardian on May 1 that Pope Francis had successfully navigated relations by strengthening engagement with China while preserving diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

"The Holy See does not want to abandon any group of Catholics in the world, including Taiwan," he said. "It's been able to maneuver and resist pressure from Beijing to cut official ties."