By Wu Qiaoxi | 2025-07-08

Japan is preparing to launch a deep-sea test excavation of rare earth elements near Minamitorishima (Marcus Island) in January 2026, a move seen as a strategic effort to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies amid growing global concerns over critical mineral security.

The site within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone is estimated to hold about 230 million tons of rare earth-rich mud. The deposits could meet Japan's cobalt needs for 75 years and its nickel demand for about 11 years, Nikkei Asia reported on June 24.

The test will be conducted by the scientific drilling vessel Chikyu, which will retrieve seabed sediments from a depth of 5,500 meters -- the deepest trial of its kind.

Japan is the only country pursuing commercial-scale seabed mining of rare earth elements, which are essential to electric vehicles, wind turbines and advanced electronics.

"The goal is to secure a domestic supply to enhance national security, rather than to enable private companies to profit from selling rare earths," Shoichi Ishii, program director of the Cabinet Office's national platform for innovative ocean developments, told Reuters in July.

If successful, the trial could mark a breakthrough in Japan's long-term strategy to develop alternative supplies of critical minerals, which have been increasingly seen as both an economic asset and as geopolitical leverage.

Japan's initiative is part of a broader international effort to reduce dependency on China for critical minerals.

On July 1, the foreign ministers of Japan, the United States, Australia and India, the so-called Quad group, announced a new initiative to enhance cooperation on mineral supply chains, Kyodo News reported.

"We are deeply concerned about the abrupt constriction and future reliability of key supply chains, specifically for critical minerals," the Quad ministers said in a joint statement.

"Reliance on any one country for processing and refining critical minerals and derivative goods production exposes our industries to economic coercion, price manipulation and supply chain disruptions, which further harms our economic and national security," they added.

The announcement follows similar commitments made at the G7 summit in Canada in June, where leaders pledged to improve environmental and traceability standards and support investment in mineral production and processing.

Expanding risk

China's grip on rare earth materials has tightened recently. In April, it announced export restrictions and licensing requirements on seven rare earth elements and related magnet products.

Now the restrictions are unofficially reaching items not on the official ban list.

This new policy has triggered unpredictable delays across industries reliant on Chinese materials, from electronics to defense.

"As long as it contains even a single sensitive word [such as magnet], customs won't release it -- it will trigger an inspection, and once that starts, it can take one or two months," a salesperson at a Chinese magnet exporter told the Financial Times on June 30.

"For example, titanium rods and zirconium tubes are also being held up," the salesperson said. "The actual controlled item is titanium powder. While our rods and tubes are not on the control list, they still aren't being cleared."

A European official, speaking anonymously to Reuters on June 29, said that China is issuing only the "bare minimum" number of licenses to prevent production shutdowns in Europe.

However, delays persist, particularly for products routed through third countries like India or those linked to US-based end users.

Critics describe China's licensing regime as "highly invasive," requiring firms to submit detailed end-use declarations, production plans, customer data and even facility photographs.

"This isn't just licensing -- it's competitive surveillance," Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, wrote in a June 29 op-ed on CNBC.com.

China dominates the rare earth market, accounting for 70% of global mining and over 90% of refining, as well as producing 92% of vital neodymium-iron-boron magnets used in key technologies.

Despite recent efforts by the United States and Japan to diversify supplies, observers warn the global supply chain remains highly vulnerable to China's rapid expansion and investment in the sector.