By Jia Feimao | 2025-12-09

A US think tank is warning that China could force Taiwan to yield, without firing a shot, by severing its energy lifeline. Beijing is testing ways to choke off the island's fuel supplies rather than invade, the think tank says in a new report.

China considers Taiwan a renegade province and has never ruled out using force to seize the democratic island.

The study, which the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) issued in November, issued recommendations on "energy resilience," "cyber resilience," "maritime resilience" and "societal resilience."

The top recommendation for each category, respectively, was "Diversify LNG [Liquefied Natural Gas] Supply Chains," Improve Public-Private Cooperation to Protect Critical Infrastructure," Prioritize Convoy and Escort Planning and Exercises" and "Publicly Announce Contingency Planning."

Such steps will reassure Taiwan and its partners that fuel shipments can continue even under intense pressure from Beijing, FDD says.

In June, FDD and Taiwan's Centre for Innovative Democracy and Sustainability (CIDS) ran a tabletop drill on a potential Chinese "energy siege" and responses by Taiwan and its partners.

FDD analysts later conferred with European government officials, industry representatives and bipartisan US Congressional staff before publishing the report, "Chinese Coercion of Taiwan's Energy Lifelines: A Contest Taiwan and the West Can't Afford to Lose."

Taiwan relies on imports for about 98% of its energy. In 2024, Australia, Qatar and the United States supplied about 38%, 25% and 10% of Taiwan's LNG imports, respectively.

Earlier studies show the island has less than two weeks of LNG stockpiles and about seven weeks of coal reserves. A cutoff of energy would quickly hit manufacturing, especially the semiconductor sector that underpins global supply chains.

Energy lifeline at risk

Taiwan is not the only country at risk. A severe energy shock in Taiwan would hit the United States almost at once, severing supply chains and jolting financial markets, says FDD.

Beijing could start trying to choke off Taiwan's energy supplies with legal paperwork and patrol vessels rather than by outright force, FDD says. It cites the prospect of supposedly "routine" inspections, new customs rules and cyber intrusions that quietly disrupt the island's energy imports.

Beijing's goal is not to invade today but to "make Taiwan believe resistance will be futile tomorrow," study co-author Craig Singleton told Fox News.

He described the "gray-zone"campaign as "slow-motion strangulation" that could suddenly escalate into a deployment of massive force.

"Gray zone" is a term for coercive tactics that fall short of war.

Reflagging

The report recommends that the US Navy prioritize helping commercial vessels reflag and prepare escort routes in advance so tankers can keep sailing during a crisis. It suggests extending convoy cooperation to Japan, Australia and the Philippines to build a wider framework for maritime security coordination.

Washington has used such measures before. In the 1980s, as tensions rose in the Persian Gulf, the US Navy reflagged and escorted Kuwaiti oil tankers to reduce the risk of attack.

Chieh Chung, a research fellow at Taiwan's Association of Strategic Foresight who took part in the FDD–CIDS tabletop exercise, said one scenario focused on securing fuel tankers bound for Taiwan.

Leading the "Taiwan team," he requested naval escorts for an energy ship, while the "US team" headed by former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman and Adm. (ret.) Michael Mullen quickly mapped out a route.

In the scenario, Chieh told Focus, a US warship sailed north from Australia and escorted the vessel near Indonesia and the Philippines before it entered a Taiwanese port.

The real deterrent to Chinese gray-zone pressure is keeping US forces visible and present, said Chieh.

Restart nuclear power; buy more US LNG

FDD consulted outside analysts on how to strengthen Taiwan's energy resilience, co-author Mark Montgomery, a retired US rear admiral and FDD senior fellow, said, according to Taiwan's Central News Agency.

The FDD study urged Taiwan to restart its nuclear power stations, which it shut down in 2018–2025 over environmental and safety concerns. "In a hot conflict over the island, where energy resupply is at best difficult and at worst impossible, redundancies are essential," FDD says.

FDD also advises increasing LNG purchases from the United States while giving Taiwan access to Japan, Australia, South Korea, and Singapore's strategic stockpiles of petroleum and LNG.

However, China could test the determination of Taiwan and its partners.

It could try to "seed questions across U.S. online ecosystems designed to wear down the American public's commitment to continued convoy operations," FDD says.

Taiwan can defeat China's strangulation strategy by withstanding "initial pressure," but it will need "coordinated efforts to support deterrence and complicate Beijing's strategic calculus," it says. It cited Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and Brussels as necessary partners for Taiwan.

"It is Taipei's resilience, not its resistance, that most unnerves the CCP [Chinese Communist Party]," FDD concludes.