By Shirin Bhandari | 2025-10-29

Fresh satellite imagery and on-the-ground statements point to a new round of Chinese work at Scarborough Shoal, renewing concerns in Manila and among regional observers that Beijing could be laying groundwork for larger-scale construction at the disputed reef.

It is known in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal.

China claims more than 80% of the South China Sea, antagonizing many of its neighbors. A court at The Hague in 2016 rejected Beijing's case.

The newest imagery, captured on October 8 by Satellogic and distributed through SkyFi, shows a continuous line of floating structures laid across Scarborough's narrow lagoon mouth.

The barrier will obstruct access to the lagoon by Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels and Filipino fishermen, say analysts at the SeaLight transparency project.

In September 2023, PCG divers cut and removed a 300-meter-long floating barrier outside the shoal's entrance.

In February 2024, China briefly installed floating barriers again outside the shoal before removing them.

Weaponizing the sea

According to SeaLight, the barrier reflects a familiar "gray-zone" tactic: temporary floating obstacles that tighten control without open military escalation.

"An illegal floating barrier installed by the People's Republic of China at the mouth of Scarborough Shoal" is visible in new satellite imagery, Luke Fischer, co-founder of SkyFi, wrote on X.

This is "just one small example of how they weaponize the sea," he added

SeaLight director Ray Powell posted an image of the barrier on X.

Pro-Chinese voices have defended the latest barrier.

The Beijing-based South China Sea Probing Initiative said on X that the measure was a response to "recent provocative behavior of the Philippines," adding that China "has the right to do anything."

Chinese control since 2012

Scarborough Shoal lies roughly 120 nautical miles west of Zambales on Luzon, well within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone. Nonetheless, China has exercised de facto control since a 2012 standoff. The Chinese coast guard blocks the lagoon entrance and harasses Filipino fishing boats around the shoal.

Tensions have climbed in recent months in both the maritime and air domains. On August 11, a Chinese navy warship and a Chinese coast guard vessel collided while harassing a Philippine patrol, underscoring the high-risk environment.

The air domain heated up in mid-October when Beijing claimed to have driven out two Philippine reconnaissance aircraft, a day after Manila reported the "aggressive interference" of a Chinese helicopter and a fighter jet with a PCG aircraft.

Spurious Chinese 'environmental' concerns

Beijing infuriated Manila by announcing in September a planned nature reserve at the shoal.

Outside analysts debunked the ostensible conservation effort and called it an administrative move to entrench control.

The designation drew criticism from Manila and foreign capitals because the shoal is a traditional fishing ground for the Philippines, China and Vietnam. The conservation designation fits a Chinese pattern of using peaceful rationales to justify patrols and military presence, say analysts.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has questioned whether China intends to convert the shoal into an artificial island.

Chinese references to "Huangyan Island" could be a "Freudian slip," he said in October.

Since 2013, China has built 3,200 acres of artificial land in the disputed Spratlys, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

'We were first'

To show that the Philippines was there first, the PCG has released a map showing old construction debris in the shoal. Decades ago, the location served as a bombing range for joint US-Philippine operations, says Manila.

The rubble dates back to the 1980s and 1990s, Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Philippine navy's spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, said in October.

Heedless of Manila's evidence, China is intensifying control in the West Philippine Sea, using "environmental protection" or "fishing regulation" as pretexts.

"It falls into a pattern of China trying to establish administrative justifications for things it's already done with military force," Greg Poling, an analyst on the South China Sea at CSIS, said about the planned nature reserve in Scarborough Shoal.

"The Philippines urges China to respect the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the Philippines over Bajo de Masinloc ... and comply with its obligations under international law," the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.