By Focus and AFP | 2026-03-19

WASHINGTON -- The US intelligence community said China is not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027 and instead prefers to pursue unification without force, according to an annual threat assessment that drew a sharp response from Beijing.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its 2026 Annual Threat Assessment on March 18, offering a more measured view of a potential Taiwan contingency than earlier US defense warnings did.

The intelligence community "assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," the report said.

China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has ramped up military pressure on the island in recent years, including frequent drills and operations around Taiwan.

However, the report said Beijing is likely to continue seeking conditions for eventual unification "short of conflict" in 2026.

Threat remains

"China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary ... prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible," the report said.

The assessment underscored the risks associated with any military move.

An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be "extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure," particularly if the United States intervenes, it said.

The report highlighted that Chinese leaders would weigh several factors before deciding on military action, including the readiness of the People's Liberation Army, Taiwan's domestic political developments and Washington's willingness to intervene militarily.

Any conflict over Taiwan would carry severe global consequences, including disruptions to technology supply chains and significant economic fallout across international markets, the study said.

US intelligence agencies said the threat had not receded. China continues to build military capabilities that could be used in a Taiwan scenario, making "steady but uneven" progress in preparing for such contingencies, said the report.

Beijing's long-term objective remains tied to achieving "national rejuvenation" by 2049, suggesting a broader timeline beyond earlier speculation centered on 2027, the report added.

China is employing multidomain coercive pressure that probably will intensify through 2026, it said.

Coercing the region

Such pressure is aimed both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis, the report said.

China retaliated in various ways after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi remarked in November that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response. The moves included banning imports of Japanese seafood, curtailing Japanese purchases of Chinese products that might have military use and discouraging Chinese tourists from visiting Japan.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Al Jazeera she agreed with the US assessment.

"[Chinese leader] Xi Jinping doesn't have a fixed timeline for reunification and prefers to achieve that goal without using force," she said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded on March 19 that "the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair" and urged the United States to "speak and act cautiously" on the island.

"The US should... correct their understanding of China, and stop hyping up the China threat theory," he said at a news conference, in response to a question about the report.

Taipei remains resolute

Taiwan Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo said on March 19 that China has continued to escalate military threats across the strategic "first island chain" while it continues to step up both its unilateralist behavior and its "gray zone" intrusions (actions short of war) on Taiwan's sovereignty.

The first island chain includes Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

Taiwan will continue to uphold the principle that peace relies on strength and to strengthen its self-defense capabilities, she said.

Washington does not officially recognize Taiwan, but it remains the self-ruled island's main military backer. Taiwan has pledged to move ahead with purchases tied to a record $11.1 billion US arms package announced by Washington in December, a move that angered Beijing.