By AFP and Focus | 2026-01-19

BEIJING -- China's birth rate plunged in 2025 to its lowest level on record as its population shrank for a fourth straight year despite efforts to curb the decline.

It is now threatened with a demographic crisis after its birth rate halved over the past decade, despite the end of the restrictive "one-child" policy (1980–2016).

There were just 7.92 million births recorded last year, Chinese officials said on January 19, a rate of 5.63 births per 1,000 people.

It was the lowest birth rate since National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) records began in 1949, the year Communist leader Mao Zedong declared the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Demographic security

China was the world's most populous country for decades before India overtook it in 2023.

The United Nations has predicted that China's population could fall from about 1.4 billion today to 800 million by 2100, even though it has taken measures to boost fertility rates.

Births fell by 1.62 million in 2025, a drop of 17% year on year, NBS data showed.

China's population fell by 3.39 million people last year from 2024, extending the annual decline that began in 2022.

The government has scrambled to boost marriage and fertility rates, offering childcare subsidies and taxing condoms as it grapples with a rapidly aging population.

NBS data showed that China recorded 11.31 million deaths in 2025, a mortality rate of 8.04 per 1,000, contributing to a population decline of 2.41 per 1,000.

High costs

Marriage rates are at a record low, with many young Chinese couples discouraged from having babies by high child-rearing costs and career concerns.

Many couples born during China's family planning period, in which each spouse is an only child, are now grappling with the responsibility of raising children while caring for two sets of aging parents.

Authorities have attempted to address the flagging birth rate with a raft of incentives for having children.

A nationwide childcare subsidy policy, which took effect on January 1, offers parents the equivalent of about $500 annually per child under the age of three.

Authorities waived fees for public kindergartens beginning last fall.

Consumers must now pay a 13% value-added tax on condoms, birth control pills and other contraceptives after Beijing removed the exemptions on January 1.

In many ways, the 13% tax on contraceptives is symbolic."The number of people choosing not to marry or not to have children is increasing, and fertility intentions among the younger generation are weak," He Yafu, an independent Chinese demographer, told AFP.

A 36-year-old father told the BBC he was unconcerned about the price increase. "A box of condoms might cost an extra five yuan, maybe 10 (72 US cents), at most 20. Over a year, that's just a few hundred yuan, completely affordable," he said.

By comparison, the average cost of raising a child in China is estimated at about 538,000 CNY ($77,200), or more than $77,000, through age 18, with expenses significantly higher in urban areas.

Despite government efforts to reverse the trend, China had one of the 10 lowest birth rates in the world in 2023, according to World Bank data, just after Japan.

Young Chinese have largely shrugged off these measures, saying they are not enough to address the problem.

The jobless rate for Chinese aged between 16 and 24 reached 18.9% in August, reflecting a tough market.

Many who have jobs work long hours under a grueling "996" culture -- 9am to 9pm, six days a week.

Overall, China has struggled to maintain a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

State efforts strain

A demographic decline on this scale would have sweeping implications for China, affecting not only its economic outlook but also its bid to rival the United States as a military power, given the relationship of population size to industrial capacity and technological development.

Shrinking populations mean smaller talent pools, armies and worker contributions into pension funds unless their governments take draconian steps.

Against that backdrop, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has framed demographics as a matter of "population security," making the development of a "high-quality population development" a national priority while pushing automation to offset labor shortages.

However, an analysis last October by the Mercator Institute for China Studies warned that Beijing's effort to frame population growth as a security issue could prove difficult to enforce. Compliance is uncertain and the risk of increased pressure on citizens looms, potentially leading to more-authoritarian measures with consequences for individual rights and gender equality.